I don't think there would be much of a difference between Trone and Alsobrooks when it comes to their chances of winning the 2024 general election against Hogan. Yes, Trone performed somewhat better than Alsobrooks did in some early general election polls against Hogan. However, Alsobrooks wasn't as well-known as Hogan or Trone early on, given that Hogan is a popular former governor and Trone had been running ads since last May. Trone tried to use those polls to make the case that he was more "electable," but it's looking increasingly likely that his argument didn't work.

All in all, my guess is if you simulated this election 10,000 times with Alsobrooks and 10,000 times with Trone, the probability of a Democratic victory would be similarly high in either. That's not to say Hogan can't claim victory in November, but we're talking about deep-blue Maryland — it's going to be very hard for him to actually win.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Given the history of former governors running for Senate in states that generally vote for the opposite party, I'm not sure it will matter much if Trone or Alsobrooks make the ballot. Consider Phil Bredesen in 2018, a popular former Democratic governor in Tennessee who lost an open seat in the state to Marsha Blackburn by around 11 points, even in a blue wave year. Or Evan Bayh, who sought a return to the Senate in Indiana in 2016, only to lose by 10 points to Todd Young. The list continues ... Ted Strickland in Ohio in 2016, Linda Lingle in Hawaii in 2012 ... I just don't think that a former governor, even a popular one, can really overcome the partisanship of a state when it comes to the Senate.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Democratic voters consistently express that they want to see more women in government: 79 percent in 2018 and 75 percent in 2023, according to Pew. Democratic activists also regularly draw attention to the fact that Black women in particular are the most reliable block of Democratic voters, yet they are underrepresented in the Senate. I don't think she will have any problems raising money or getting Democrats to turn out in November.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

I agree, Nathaniel. I think that with Trump on the ballot, Democrats will be incredibly motivated to turn out to vote against him and will vote blue in states like Maryland. The nuances of Hogan being an anti-Trump Republican will get lost in a party that increasingly defines itself by its loyalty to the former president. And Democrats especially won't want to cross the aisle to possibly give a potential Trump presidency more power if it looks like he might win and might also bring a Republican-led Senate with him.

—Monica Potts, 538