Nathaniel, in 2018 Blankenship won just four counties in the GOP primary. One of them was Mingo County, on the state's southern edge and Blankenship's home base. He won it with 45 percent of the vote in 2018, and in 2024 it's the only county he's carrying so far, with about 52 percent of the vote. Mingo was once staunchly Democratic but has zoomed rightward, as has most of the state. In 2004, John Kerry carried over George W. Bush by 13 percent. In 2020, Biden only won 13 percent of the vote!

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Real heads may remember Blankenship, a convicted criminal, from 2018, when he almost won the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, which would've been establishment Republicans' worst nightmare as they sought to take down Manchin. Well, he's trying for a comeback tonight in the Democratic primary for Senate, and he's in a distant third place.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

As Nathaniel mentioned earlier, West Virginia's 1st Congressional District's Republican primary has a candidate, Evans, who served three months in jail after filming himself storming the Capitol on Jan. 6. His performance in the district, which includes the state capital city of Charleston, will be a good illustration of where the party is when it comes to how important election denialism remains. Evans apologized for his actions in court, but after leaving jail, he began calling himself a "J6 patriot."

This evolution mirrors what has happened in the Republican Party, as GOP primary voters have become less likely to believe Trump is to blame for Jan. 6, more swayed by conspiracy theories about the insurrection and less likely to say Biden was legitimately elected, according to a Washington Post/University of Maryland poll from the third anniversary. As Mary mentioned earlier, Democrats are much more worried about a repeat of the insurrection and worried that democracy in the U.S. is in peril.

So far there's only about 3 percent of the vote reporting, and Miller has opened up with a lead with 65 percent of the vote. But if Evans upsets the race and pulls out a win over the incumbent Miller, who has also shown unwavering support for Trump, his actions on that day are unlikely to hurt him in this deep red district.

—Monica Potts, 538

We've got 11 percent of the expected vote reporting in West Virginia's 2nd District, and as expected, state Treasurer Riley Moore is running well ahead of the pack with about 45 percent. In a distant second are Army veteran Joseph Earley and retired Air Force general Chris Walker, both at 17 percent. This should be an easy win for Moore (and also a win for the Moore dynasty, which will notch at least one victory tonight even if Moore Capito loses the gubernatorial primary.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

If you're looking for a dark horse race that could prove very interesting, keep an eye on the Republican primary for West Virginia's 1st District. Incumbent Carol Miller is running here and hasn't done anything to upset the GOP base, but she is facing a robust challenge from former state Del. Derrick Evans. Evans is no ordinary former state legislator, though. He served all of 40 days in office, from Dec. 1, 2020, to Jan. 9, 2021, when he resigned three days after entering the U.S. Capitol as part of the pro-Trump mob attempting to stop certification of the 2020 election. He pleaded guilty to a felony civil disorder charge and served three months in jail, but he is now singing a different tune for his GOP primary campaign, defending the Jan. 6 insurrection and condemning his prosecution.

And Evans may have a serious shot. Bolstered by the endorsements of far-right Rep. Bob Good and Trump allies like pillow salesman Mike Lindell and former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, he has raised almost as much money as Miller: $982,000 to $783,000. There's no public polling in this race, but Miller appears to be looking over her shoulder. She recently started airing negative ads against Evans, attacking him for being, of all things, too liberal.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538