I could see Trone attempting to quell the "more electable because I'm wealthier" thinking by opening up his own pockets for Alsobrooks directly. He seemed willing to self-fund if need be. In fact, I was at an event of his in Silver Spring last week where he said he would spend "whatever it takes" to beat Hogan. Money where his mouth is could do Alsobrooks serious good, both for the narrative, and for the war chest, candidly.

—Brittany Shepherd, ABC News

Nathaniel, here's where I think the Trone electability argument ultimately fell short. This guy spent $62 million blanketing the state with positive advertising nonstop from September until today. If voters were going to respond to what he was offering, they would have done so already. The fact that by the end he was performing pretty similarly to Alsobrooks in head-to-head matchups against Hogan, and that his image was actually worse than Alsobrooks statewide, suggests to me that his money wouldn't have done him all that many favors in the general election. I still think he would have won, but only because I think any Democrat with a pulse and a decent voting record can win a Senate race in Maryland.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

The Democratic primary for Maryland Senate has focused heavily on electability, with Trone arguing that Democrats should nominate him because he’ll have an easier time beating Hogan in the fall, whereas nominating Alsobrooks would risk giving Republicans a pickup opportunity. However, I’m skeptical that Hogan really has a shot in a state as blue as Maryland, no matter who Democrats nominate. What do you guys think?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

With 41 percent of the expected vote reporting, Alsobrooks now leads Trone 53 percent to 43 percent, and we're starting to see projections for her from some outlets, such as the Associated Press. Probably the biggest sign of Alsobrooks's edge is that she's leading outright in places beyond the majority- or plurality-Black localities of Prince George's County (her home base), Baltimore City and Charles County.

In the last two open-seat Senate races in Maryland in 2006 and 2016, the Democratic primary featured one major Black candidate and one major white contender, and in each race the Black aspirant only carried those three places. But this time around, Alsobrooks is ahead in Baltimore County and running basically even with Trone in his home base of Montgomery County. All of this adds up to a lead that looks likely to hold up at this point.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In Baltimore, Democratic voters are choosing between a current and former mayor, and the race looks very close. Former mayor Sheila Dixon is currently leading incumbent Brandon Scott by less than a tenth of a percentage point with mostly early vote reported, according to the state's board of elections.

This is Dixon's third attempt to return to the mayor's office since she resigned in 2010 after being found guilty of embezzlement. In 2016, she narrowly lost the primary to Catherine Pugh, who later went on to plead guilty to conspiracy and tax evasion. Then in 2020, Dixon lost the primary to Scott by just 2.1 percentage points, though a crowded field of 24 candidates meant neither put up a strong showing.

Perhaps ironically, Dixon's campaign this time around focused in part on crime, an issue that 79 percent of Baltimore voters cited as "extremely serious" or "very serious" in a March Washington Post/University of Maryland poll, far more than other areas of the state. Thirty-two percent of Baltimore City voters also told the pollsters that they feel "not too safe" or "not at all safe" from crime in their neighborhoods.

Two different surveys of the mayoral primary in April both showed a single-digit race with Scott ahead, so this one might go down to the wire.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538