Nathaniel, in 2018 Blankenship won just four counties in the GOP primary. One of them was Mingo County, on the state's southern edge and Blankenship's home base. He won it with 45 percent of the vote in 2018, and in 2024 it's the only county he's carrying so far, with about 52 percent of the vote. Mingo was once staunchly Democratic but has zoomed rightward, as has most of the state. In 2004, John Kerry carried over George W. Bush by 13 percent. In 2020, Biden only won 13 percent of the vote!

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Real heads may remember Blankenship, a convicted criminal, from 2018, when he almost won the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, which would've been establishment Republicans' worst nightmare as they sought to take down Manchin. Well, he's trying for a comeback tonight in the Democratic primary for Senate, and he's in a distant third place.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

As Nathaniel mentioned earlier, West Virginia's 1st Congressional District's Republican primary has a candidate, Evans, who served three months in jail after filming himself storming the Capitol on Jan. 6. His performance in the district, which includes the state capital city of Charleston, will be a good illustration of where the party is when it comes to how important election denialism remains. Evans apologized for his actions in court, but after leaving jail, he began calling himself a "J6 patriot."

This evolution mirrors what has happened in the Republican Party, as GOP primary voters have become less likely to believe Trump is to blame for Jan. 6, more swayed by conspiracy theories about the insurrection and less likely to say Biden was legitimately elected, according to a Washington Post/University of Maryland poll from the third anniversary. As Mary mentioned earlier, Democrats are much more worried about a repeat of the insurrection and worried that democracy in the U.S. is in peril.

So far there's only about 3 percent of the vote reporting, and Miller has opened up with a lead with 65 percent of the vote. But if Evans upsets the race and pulls out a win over the incumbent Miller, who has also shown unwavering support for Trump, his actions on that day are unlikely to hurt him in this deep red district.

—Monica Potts, 538

We've got 11 percent of the expected vote reporting in West Virginia's 2nd District, and as expected, state Treasurer Riley Moore is running well ahead of the pack with about 45 percent. In a distant second are Army veteran Joseph Earley and retired Air Force general Chris Walker, both at 17 percent. This should be an easy win for Moore (and also a win for the Moore dynasty, which will notch at least one victory tonight even if Moore Capito loses the gubernatorial primary.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Tonight, we'll be monitoring how candidates of color perform in primaries for governor, U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives. Overall, 47 people of color are running in these contests — 36 Democrats and 11 Republicans. Almost all of the candidates (44) are running in Maryland, which is one of the most racially and ethnically diverse states in the country.

The marquee Maryland race involving a candidate of color is, of course, the Democratic primary for Senate. If Alsobrooks makes it through both the primary and general election, she will be only the third Black woman ever elected to the Senate — although she may be tied for that distinction with Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, who is a strong favorite to win in Delaware.

Down the Maryland ballot, a number of candidates are running in the solidly blue 3rd District. In the Democratic primary, former Capitol Hill police officer Harry Dunn, who is Black, has been a fundraising machine but finds himself in a tight contest in against state Sen. Sarah Elfreth, who is white. State Sen. Clarence Lam, who is of East Asian descent, may have an outside shot of catching Dunn and/or Elfreth, while three other legislators of color — Dels. Mark Chang, Terri Hill and Mike Rogers — look unlikely to break through. On the GOP side, retired Air Force officer Berney Flowers, who is Black, has raised a bit more than his primary opponents, although the Republican nominee will have virtually no chance here.

In the blue-leaning 6th District, state Del. Joe Vogel, a Latino, is locked in a close race with former Commerce Department official April McCalin Delaney. A third contender, Hagerstown Mayor Tekesha Martinez, who is Black, has raised a sizable amount of campaign cash, too. In the mix in the Republican primary are Air Force veteran Mariela Roca, who is Latina, and former Del. Brenda Thiam, who was the first Black female Republican to ever sit in the Maryland legislature. However, this crowded race could go in a lot of directions.

Elsewhere, in the solidly blue 2nd District, Del. Harry Bhandari, a Nepali immigrant, looks like a significant underdog in the Democratic primary against Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski. The GOP favorite in that seat may be Kim Klacik, a Black woman whose failed 2020 campaign in the solidly Democratic 7th District raised millions after Trump retweeted her campaign ad. She has raised far less this time around, and whomever Republicans nominate will be a huge underdog in November.

In the dark-blue 5th District, health care executive Quincy Bareebe, a Ugandan immigrant, has loaned her campaign more than $200,000 in her long-shot primary challenge to longtime Rep. Steny Hoyer. On the Republican side, Charles County GOP chair Michelle Talkington, who is half Black and half white, has no opposition in her primary. Reps. Glenn Ivey and Kweisi Mfume, both Black incumbents, should easily win renomination in their safe blue seats.

Outside Maryland, state Sen. Tony Vargas, who is Latino, is unopposed for the Democratic nomination in Nebraska's highly competitive 2nd District. And in Nebraska's special election for Senate, community advocate Preston Love Jr., who is Black, is also unopposed but will stand little chance in the general election. In West Virginia's dark-red 2nd District, Walker, who is Black, has raised a lot of money in the Republican primary but, as Nathaniel wrote earlier, looks like an underdog against Moore.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538