Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Alsobrooks beats Trone, GOP incumbents survive

538 tracked over 10 competitive primaries for Senate, House and governor.

Tuesday, May 14 was another busy primary day, as voters in three states decided who would be on their general election ballots this fall. In Maryland, Democrats nominated women in two safely Democratic congressional seats, including Angela Alsobrooks, who is poised to become only the third Black woman ever elected to the Senate. In West Virginia and Nebraska, incumbent Republican representatives fended off far-right challengers.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


0

Checking in on anti-abortion candidates

Anti-abortion candidates are projected to win their primaries in many races, ABC News is reporting: Harris in Maryland's conservative 1st Congressional District, Ricketts in the Nebraska Senate special election, Flood, Bacon and Smith in all three of Nebraska's House Republican primaries, and Justice, Miller and Moore in West Virginia's Senate and two House primaries.

In fact, their projected wins mean that all of West Virginia's representatives in Washington next year could be anti-abortion candidates, since the Republicans are favored to win the general elections in November. That could matter as the abortion battles raging across the country could move to D.C. if Republicans win big in the fall.

—Monica Potts, 538


West Virginia's Moore-Capito political dynasty

The names Moore and Capito look set to remain emblazoned on West Virginia's political landscape. We've mentioned that Riley Moore has claimed the GOP nomination in West Virginia's 2nd District, making it very likely that he'll join his aunt, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, in Congress after the 2024 general election. Meanwhile, the senator's son, Moore Capito, is currently in second place in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

The Moore name has been around West Virginia politics for quite a while. Sen. Capito's father, Arch Moore Jr., was a major figure in West Virginia politics for decades. He served in the U.S. House for six terms, served an unprecedented three terms as governor (in two separate stints) and also lost major statewide contests for Senate and governor. After leaving the governorship the second time, he pleaded guilty to federal charges related to bribery, extortion, tax fraud and obstruction of justice, serving time in prison as a result. Going even farther back, Arch Moore Jr.'s grandfather had been a minority leader in the state House of Delegates.

Seems like the Moore-Capito clan's tenure will only grow from here on.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Holding steady in the West Virginia governor’s race

We’re up to 63 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for West Virginia governor now, and Morrisey (34 percent) is still slightly ahead of Capito (29 percent). Miller lags behind in third place with 18 percent, while Warner is in fourth with 16 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Republican women are struggling to win open primaries

As I mentioned earlier on the blog, GOP women are struggling to win in primaries this cycle, especially in places that will be competitive in November. According to the Center for American Women and Politics, Republican women are just 18 percent of their party's candidates in House races where filing deadlines have passed as of April 26, and just 14 percent of nominees as of May 8. By comparison, women are 36 percent of all Democratic candidates, and a whopping 41 percent of Democratic nominees thus far. One female Republican hopeful running today is Mariela Roca, in Maryland's 6th District. She is trailing (11 percent) with 30 percent of the expected vote reporting.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Democrats fear a repeat of Jan. 6

As Nathaniel mentioned earlier, West Virginia's 1st Congressional District's Republican primary has a candidate, Evans, who served three months in jail after filming himself storming the Capitol on Jan. 6. His performance in the district, which includes the state capital city of Charleston, will be a good illustration of where the party is when it comes to how important election denialism remains. Evans apologized for his actions in court, but after leaving jail, he began calling himself a "J6 patriot."

This evolution mirrors what has happened in the Republican Party, as GOP primary voters have become less likely to believe Trump is to blame for Jan. 6, more swayed by conspiracy theories about the insurrection and less likely to say Biden was legitimately elected, according to a Washington Post/University of Maryland poll from the third anniversary. As Mary mentioned earlier, Democrats are much more worried about a repeat of the insurrection and worried that democracy in the U.S. is in peril.

So far there's only about 3 percent of the vote reporting, and Miller has opened up with a lead with 65 percent of the vote. But if Evans upsets the race and pulls out a win over the incumbent Miller, who has also shown unwavering support for Trump, his actions on that day are unlikely to hurt him in this deep red district.

—Monica Potts, 538