Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Alsobrooks beats Trone, GOP incumbents survive

538 tracked over 10 competitive primaries for Senate, House and governor.

Tuesday, May 14 was another busy primary day, as voters in three states decided who would be on their general election ballots this fall. In Maryland, Democrats nominated women in two safely Democratic congressional seats, including Angela Alsobrooks, who is poised to become only the third Black woman ever elected to the Senate. In West Virginia and Nebraska, incumbent Republican representatives fended off far-right challengers.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


0

Question: Elfreth beats Dunn in Maryland's 3rd District — Is that a surprise?

Democrats' 22-person race in Maryland's 3rd District came down to two candidates (as expected). With 55 percent of the expected vote reporting, ABC News reports that Elfreth is the projected winner, and she leads Dunn 36 percent to 25 percent.

Question for the group: Is anyone surprised by Elfreth's win? I am a bit surprised, given Dunn's celebrity status.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


How candidates of color are doing tonight

We've been tracking how people of color are performing in primaries throughout this cycle, and there were 47 on the ballot tonight, 44 of whom were running in Maryland. Overall, seven are projected to win, of which Alsobrooks is probably the most notable.

Alsobrooks could make history as the third Black woman to ever win election to the Senate, though she could share that honor with Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, who is favored to win Delaware's open Senate seat. Elsewhere in Maryland, two Black Democratic incumbents, Ivey and Mfume, also won renomination. Klacik, whom Meredith discussed, won the GOP nomination in Maryland's 2nd District, but will be a huge underdog in November. It's a similar story for Talkington in Maryland's 5th District. In Nebraska, meanwhile, Vargas was unopposed for the Democratic nomination and will face Bacon in the state's purple 2nd District this November. And in one of Nebraska's Senate races, Love Jr. was unopposed and will very likely lose against Ricketts in the solidly red state. Beyond those individuals, it's unlikely that any other candidates on the list will win a primary tonight.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Alsobrooks supporters and surrogates celebrate her victory

At Angela Alsobrooks's HQ in Greenbelt, excitement is getting more and more tangible — with results of her victory now called, the crowd is listening to some of her high-profile supporters in anticipation of her own appearance on stage.

Alsobrooks — who had a significant funding disadvantage compared to her much wealthier opponent — seems to have captured the majority of primary votes based on her slate of important endorsements from people, including Gov. Wes Moore and Reps. Steny Hoyer and Jamie Raskin.

"What do they say? Money can't buy you love," Maryland Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller said at Alsobrooks's election night party on Tuesday.

"I am so very proud of Angela Alsobrooks," Hoyer echoed, saying "both" Trone and Alsobrooks would have beaten Larry Hogan in a general election, but "Angela was the strongest candidate."

—Isabella Murray, ABC News


Projected winners in Maryland's 6th District

ABC News reports that April McClain Delaney is projected to win the Democratic primary in Maryland's 6th District, and that Neil Parrott is projected to win the Republican primary there. Both currently hold double-digit victories over their closest opponents, with over 55 percent of the expected vote reporting in each race. Delaney will start out as the favorite in the general election, but this is a district that could conceivably become competitive in a bad year for Democrats.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Republican women's groups are endorsing in fewer races this cycle

Since about the mid-1990s, Democrats have been electing more women to Congress than Republicans, and the gap gets bigger each cycle. A number of factors explain this disparity between the parties, but one is that the GOP continues to invest less in recruiting and financially supporting its female primary candidates.

There was some speculation that this might be changing. After the 2018 midterm elections, a handful of GOP groups aiming to elect more women cropped up after just four of the 42 new women who joined Congress were Republicans. That imbalance was a wake-up call for New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, who had reportedly recruited more than 100 women to run for Congress that year, but just one of them prevailed in November; most failed to emerge from their primaries. After the 2018 cycle, Stefanik started Elevate PAC as the Republican counterpart to EMILY's List. Stefanik announced she wanted to "play big in primaries," even though Republican leadership said it was "a mistake." Perhaps as a result, in the 2020 cycle, more Republican women ran in and won primaries than ever before.

But this cycle, Elevate PAC hasn't posted any endorsements to its website; Open Secrets shows that it has made contributions to primary candidates — but that list includes men, too, evidence that Stefanik may have other priorities this time around.

But Elevate PAC isn't the only GOP women's group that seems to be pulling back. We've also been tracking endorsements from Winning for Women, Maggie's List and VIEW PAC. Through today's primaries, Winning for Women and Maggie's List have endorsed just two non-incumbents (Wendy Davis, who lost her primary last week in Indiana, and Laurie Buckhout, who won her March primary in North Carolina). VIEW PAC is outpacing these other groups in endorsements, but it has still endorsed only five non-incumbents (two of whom have won their primaries thus far).

Today, there is one Republican woman running in an incumbent-less primary with support from VIEW PAC: Mariela Roca, an Air Force veteran, is running in Maryland's 6th District. However, she faces an uphill battle against two former state delegates, Dan Cox and Neil Parrott.

The primaries aren't over, so we don't yet know if the GOP is slipping when it comes to nominating women. But preliminary evidence from the Center for American Women in Politics suggests a decline. The number of female Republican House candidates is down by 38 percent from 2022 to 2024 in states where filing deadlines have passed.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

CORRECTION (May 15, 2024, 3:15 p.m.): A previous version of this post stated that Winning for Women and Maggie's List have only endorsed one non-incumbent through today's primaries. The post has been updated to include Laurie Buckhout of North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, whom both organizations have also endorsed.