Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Alsobrooks beats Trone, GOP incumbents survive

538 tracked over 10 competitive primaries for Senate, House and governor.

Tuesday, May 14 was another busy primary day, as voters in three states decided who would be on their general election ballots this fall. In Maryland, Democrats nominated women in two safely Democratic congressional seats, including Angela Alsobrooks, who is poised to become only the third Black woman ever elected to the Senate. In West Virginia and Nebraska, incumbent Republican representatives fended off far-right challengers.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Morrisey projected to win in West Virginia

ABC News reports that Morrisey is projected to win the Republican primary for governor of West Virginia — thus making him the heavy favorite to succeed Justice in Charleston next year. With 91 percent of the expected vote reporting, Morrisey is leading Capito 34 percent to 28 percent.

As you can see in the map below, Morrisey's win was built on his strength in West Virginia's border counties, which perhaps makes sense for a candidate not originally from the state. Capito, meanwhile, is winning a few central counties like Charleston's Kanawha County, and Miller is doing well in southwestern West Virginia — the heart of coal country.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Another EMILY's List endorsee wins

With Alsobrooks as the projected Democratic winner in the Maryland Senate race according to reporting by ABC News, EMILY's List can chalk up another win. We've been tracking EMILY's List endorsees in primaries and how they're faring. So far, they've endorsed 12 non-incumbent women (including Alsobrooks). Of these, just three have lost their primaries (who all happen to be in California).

If Alsobrooks wins in November, she will be just the third Black woman ever elected to the Senate.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Trone had a ceiling

Yeah, Geoffrey, and it was a pretty convincing win for Alsobrooks at that. Pretty impressive after she trailed in polls for almost the entire primary — only the last two polls showed her ahead, and in our final average, Trone was still leading by 2 points. But Trone seemed to have a ceiling, as he just did not gain much support no matter how much more money he spent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Alsobrooks projected in Maryland's Democratic primary for Senate

ABC News is reporting that Alsobrooks is projected to win the Democratic primary in Maryland's U.S. Senate race. With 53 percent of the expected vote reporting, Alsobrooks leads 53 percent to 43 percent. As the map below shows, she's ahead in the four largest localities in the state right now: Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore Counties, plus the city of Baltimore. She will face Hogan in November.

—Geoffrey Skelley, ABC News


Republican women's groups are endorsing in fewer races this cycle

Since about the mid-1990s, Democrats have been electing more women to Congress than Republicans, and the gap gets bigger each cycle. A number of factors explain this disparity between the parties, but one is that the GOP continues to invest less in recruiting and financially supporting its female primary candidates.

There was some speculation that this might be changing. After the 2018 midterm elections, a handful of GOP groups aiming to elect more women cropped up after just four of the 42 new women who joined Congress were Republicans. That imbalance was a wake-up call for New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, who had reportedly recruited more than 100 women to run for Congress that year, but just one of them prevailed in November; most failed to emerge from their primaries. After the 2018 cycle, Stefanik started Elevate PAC as the Republican counterpart to EMILY's List. Stefanik announced she wanted to "play big in primaries," even though Republican leadership said it was "a mistake." Perhaps as a result, in the 2020 cycle, more Republican women ran in and won primaries than ever before.

But this cycle, Elevate PAC hasn't posted any endorsements to its website; Open Secrets shows that it has made contributions to primary candidates — but that list includes men, too, evidence that Stefanik may have other priorities this time around.

But Elevate PAC isn't the only GOP women's group that seems to be pulling back. We've also been tracking endorsements from Winning for Women, Maggie's List and VIEW PAC. Through today's primaries, Winning for Women and Maggie's List have endorsed just two non-incumbents (Wendy Davis, who lost her primary last week in Indiana, and Laurie Buckhout, who won her March primary in North Carolina). VIEW PAC is outpacing these other groups in endorsements, but it has still endorsed only five non-incumbents (two of whom have won their primaries thus far).

Today, there is one Republican woman running in an incumbent-less primary with support from VIEW PAC: Mariela Roca, an Air Force veteran, is running in Maryland's 6th District. However, she faces an uphill battle against two former state delegates, Dan Cox and Neil Parrott.

The primaries aren't over, so we don't yet know if the GOP is slipping when it comes to nominating women. But preliminary evidence from the Center for American Women in Politics suggests a decline. The number of female Republican House candidates is down by 38 percent from 2022 to 2024 in states where filing deadlines have passed.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

CORRECTION (May 15, 2024, 3:15 p.m.): A previous version of this post stated that Winning for Women and Maggie's List have only endorsed one non-incumbent through today's primaries. The post has been updated to include Laurie Buckhout of North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, whom both organizations have also endorsed.