Given the history of former governors running for Senate in states that generally vote for the opposite party, I'm not sure it will matter much if Trone or Alsobrooks make the ballot. Consider Phil Bredesen in 2018, a popular former Democratic governor in Tennessee who lost an open seat in the state to Marsha Blackburn by around 11 points, even in a blue wave year. Or Evan Bayh, who sought a return to the Senate in Indiana in 2016, only to lose by 10 points to Todd Young. The list continues ... Ted Strickland in Ohio in 2016, Linda Lingle in Hawaii in 2012 ... I just don't think that a former governor, even a popular one, can really overcome the partisanship of a state when it comes to the Senate.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Democratic voters consistently express that they want to see more women in government: 79 percent in 2018 and 75 percent in 2023, according to Pew. Democratic activists also regularly draw attention to the fact that Black women in particular are the most reliable block of Democratic voters, yet they are underrepresented in the Senate. I don't think she will have any problems raising money or getting Democrats to turn out in November.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

I agree, Nathaniel. I think that with Trump on the ballot, Democrats will be incredibly motivated to turn out to vote against him and will vote blue in states like Maryland. The nuances of Hogan being an anti-Trump Republican will get lost in a party that increasingly defines itself by its loyalty to the former president. And Democrats especially won't want to cross the aisle to possibly give a potential Trump presidency more power if it looks like he might win and might also bring a Republican-led Senate with him.

—Monica Potts, 538

I could see Trone attempting to quell the "more electable because I'm wealthier" thinking by opening up his own pockets for Alsobrooks directly. He seemed willing to self-fund if need be. In fact, I was at an event of his in Silver Spring last week where he said he would spend "whatever it takes" to beat Hogan. Money where his mouth is could do Alsobrooks serious good, both for the narrative, and for the war chest, candidly.

—Brittany Shepherd, ABC News

Since about the mid-1990s, Democrats have been electing more women to Congress than Republicans, and the gap gets bigger each cycle. A number of factors explain this disparity between the parties, but one is that the GOP continues to invest less in recruiting and financially supporting its female primary candidates.

There was some speculation that this might be changing. After the 2018 midterm elections, a handful of GOP groups aiming to elect more women cropped up after just four of the 42 new women who joined Congress were Republicans. That imbalance was a wake-up call for New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, who had reportedly recruited more than 100 women to run for Congress that year, but just one of them prevailed in November; most failed to emerge from their primaries. After the 2018 cycle, Stefanik started Elevate PAC as the Republican counterpart to EMILY's List. Stefanik announced she wanted to "play big in primaries," even though Republican leadership said it was "a mistake." Perhaps as a result, in the 2020 cycle, more Republican women ran in and won primaries than ever before.

But this cycle, Elevate PAC hasn't posted any endorsements to its website; Open Secrets shows that it has made contributions to primary candidates — but that list includes men, too, evidence that Stefanik may have other priorities this time around.

But Elevate PAC isn't the only GOP women's group that seems to be pulling back. We've also been tracking endorsements from Winning for Women, Maggie's List and VIEW PAC. Through today's primaries, Winning for Women and Maggie's List have endorsed just two non-incumbents (Wendy Davis, who lost her primary last week in Indiana, and Laurie Buckhout, who won her March primary in North Carolina). VIEW PAC is outpacing these other groups in endorsements, but it has still endorsed only five non-incumbents (two of whom have won their primaries thus far).

Today, there is one Republican woman running in an incumbent-less primary with support from VIEW PAC: Mariela Roca, an Air Force veteran, is running in Maryland's 6th District. However, she faces an uphill battle against two former state delegates, Dan Cox and Neil Parrott.

The primaries aren't over, so we don't yet know if the GOP is slipping when it comes to nominating women. But preliminary evidence from the Center for American Women in Politics suggests a decline. The number of female Republican House candidates is down by 38 percent from 2022 to 2024 in states where filing deadlines have passed.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

CORRECTION (May 15, 2024, 3:15 p.m.): A previous version of this post stated that Winning for Women and Maggie's List have only endorsed one non-incumbent through today's primaries. The post has been updated to include Laurie Buckhout of North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, whom both organizations have also endorsed.