With Justice term-limited out of the West Virginia governor's office, the open-seat Republican primary features members of three old West Virginia political families: former state Del. Moore Capito, the son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito; car dealer Chris Miller, the son of Rep. Carol Miller; and Secretary of State Mac Warner, whose father and brother were both state legislators. However, the front-runner is a relative newcomer to the state: Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (whose first campaign was for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District in 2000).

Trump has not endorsed in this race, but (so?) the candidates have been tripping over each other to prove they are the most pro-Trump — and, in a state that recently banned gender-affirming care, the most anti-transgender. For example, a pro-Morrisey PAC has hammered Miller for "pro-transgender events" (its language for drag shows and a free clothing closet for transgender students) at Marshall University, where Miller served on the board of governors until last year. Meanwhile, supporters of Miller have hit back at Morrisey for being a lobbyist for a "drug company that helps turn boys into girls" in an ad that also unsubtly pokes fun at Morrisey's height and weight.

Thanks to his ability to self-fund, Miller has spent twice as much money as Morrisey, $6.2 million to $3.1 million. However, polls indicate it hasn't done that much to boost his support. Instead, it is Capito who looks like he poses the biggest threat to Morrisey: Since April 1, he has risen from 16 percent to 26 percent in 538's polling average of the race, within striking distance of Morrisey at 33 percent. (Miller is at 20 percent, and Warner is at 12 percent.) Capito recently received the endorsement of Justice himself, and if he wins, would likely govern in the incumbent's back-slapping, deal-making style; the Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity-endorsed Morrisey, though, is more of a hardliner.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

When Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin announced he was retiring in November, West Virginia's U.S. Senate seat became an almost automatic Republican pickup — and the GOP primary became the only game in town. But what was once expected to be a firecracker of a fight between Gov. Jim Justice and Rep. Alex Mooney has fizzled. Trump endorsed Justice in October, and the anti-establishment Club for Growth has not come through with the $10 million it originally planned to spend for Mooney, who is aligned with the far-right obstructionist wing of the GOP. As a result, Justice leads Mooney 60 percent to 26 percent in 538's average of primary polls of the race.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

It's going to be a minute before we start to get primary results this evening, so allow me to make a humble suggestion in the meantime: Listen to the 538 Politics podcast!

Yesterday I sat down with my colleagues Nathaniel and Geoffrey and friend of the pod Leah Askarinam to talk about the recent The New York Times/Siena College swing-state polls and preview tonight's races. In case you missed it, the polling was pretty bad for President Joe Biden. He trailed former President Donald Trump in every battleground state except Wisconsin and lagged by 12 percentage points in Nevada.

But there are some caveats in understanding what those polls mean at this point in the cycle. Most importantly, it's less that Trump has picked up ground than that Biden has lost it, and a big question over the next five and a half months will be whether Biden can gain that support back. There's a lot more to say, but I'll let you listen to find out!

As far as tonight's races go, we mainly focused on the important Democratic Senate primary in Maryland, where things are looking truly competitive. We also hit on a couple of House primaries that feature people who were in the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 — one Capitol police officer and one Trump supporter. Check it out!

—Galen Druke, 538

Welcome to 538’s live blog of the May 14 primaries in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia! But this is no ordinary live blog. Today, my friends, is arguably the most interesting downballot primary day of the cycle.

The headliner today is the Democratic primary for Maryland’s open Senate seat. The Old Line State could become only the third state to elect a Black female senator, but a wealthy white congressman has spent nearly $62 million (!) to make sure that doesn’t happen. Some have argued that this should-be-safely-Democratic seat could be competitive in the fall if Democrats nominate the wrong candidate, but is that really true? We’ll discuss.

Elsewhere, Republicans could cripple their chances of winning Nebraska’s swingy 2nd District in November if they nominate a far-right primary challenger over a moderate incumbent. Meanwhile, we have one race tonight where someone who spent three months in jail for storming the Capitol on Jan. 6 could return there as a U.S. representative, and another that includes a former Capitol Police officer who was there that day.

And that’s just scratching the surface; we’ll be going deep on primary races up and down the ballot. The polls close in West Virginia at 7:30 p.m. Eastern, in Maryland at 8 p.m. Eastern and in Nebraska at 9 p.m. Eastern. Plan your evening accordingly!

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Since about the mid-1990s, Democrats have been electing more women to Congress than Republicans, and the gap gets bigger each cycle. A number of factors explain this disparity between the parties, but one is that the GOP continues to invest less in recruiting and financially supporting its female primary candidates.

There was some speculation that this might be changing. After the 2018 midterm elections, a handful of GOP groups aiming to elect more women cropped up after just four of the 42 new women who joined Congress were Republicans. That imbalance was a wake-up call for New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, who had reportedly recruited more than 100 women to run for Congress that year, but just one of them prevailed in November; most failed to emerge from their primaries. After the 2018 cycle, Stefanik started Elevate PAC as the Republican counterpart to EMILY's List. Stefanik announced she wanted to "play big in primaries," even though Republican leadership said it was "a mistake." Perhaps as a result, in the 2020 cycle, more Republican women ran in and won primaries than ever before.

But this cycle, Elevate PAC hasn't posted any endorsements to its website; Open Secrets shows that it has made contributions to primary candidates — but that list includes men, too, evidence that Stefanik may have other priorities this time around.

But Elevate PAC isn't the only GOP women's group that seems to be pulling back. We've also been tracking endorsements from Winning for Women, Maggie's List and VIEW PAC. Through today's primaries, Winning for Women and Maggie's List have endorsed just two non-incumbents (Wendy Davis, who lost her primary last week in Indiana, and Laurie Buckhout, who won her March primary in North Carolina). VIEW PAC is outpacing these other groups in endorsements, but it has still endorsed only five non-incumbents (two of whom have won their primaries thus far).

Today, there is one Republican woman running in an incumbent-less primary with support from VIEW PAC: Mariela Roca, an Air Force veteran, is running in Maryland's 6th District. However, she faces an uphill battle against two former state delegates, Dan Cox and Neil Parrott.

The primaries aren't over, so we don't yet know if the GOP is slipping when it comes to nominating women. But preliminary evidence from the Center for American Women in Politics suggests a decline. The number of female Republican House candidates is down by 38 percent from 2022 to 2024 in states where filing deadlines have passed.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

CORRECTION (May 15, 2024, 3:15 p.m.): A previous version of this post stated that Winning for Women and Maggie's List have only endorsed one non-incumbent through today's primaries. The post has been updated to include Laurie Buckhout of North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, whom both organizations have also endorsed.