Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Alsobrooks beats Trone, GOP incumbents survive

538 tracked over 10 competitive primaries for Senate, House and governor.

Tuesday, May 14 was another busy primary day, as voters in three states decided who would be on their general election ballots this fall. In Maryland, Democrats nominated women in two safely Democratic congressional seats, including Angela Alsobrooks, who is poised to become only the third Black woman ever elected to the Senate. In West Virginia and Nebraska, incumbent Republican representatives fended off far-right challengers.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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More family connections in West Virginia

The family ties in West Virginia elections tonight don’t stop at the Capitos and Millers. According to the AP, Kris Warner has won the Republican primary for secretary of state there — a job currently held by his brother Mac.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Maryland's 6th is Delaney Country

In Maryland's 6th District, Democrat April McClain Delaney looks to be in a strong position in her primary. With just over a quarter of the expected vote reporting, she leads state Del. Joe Vogel 40 to 26 percent. Her husband, John Delaney, held this seat from 2012 to 2018. On the GOP side, former state Del. Neil Parrott is cruising to a likely third consecutive GOP nomination with 50 percent of the vote, outpacing 2022 gubernatorial nominee Dan Cox, with 55 percent of the expected vote reporting.

Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Answer: Electability, shmectability

Echoing what everyone else has said about Alsobrooks, I also would question the utility of being seen as "electable" in the first place. Plenty have written over the years about how the term can carry with it racial or gender-based undertones — the electability conversation loomed large leading up to the 2020 election, when a number of women were vying to be the Democratic nominee. But nationwide considerations about electability are one thing; I'm doubtful it'll matter at all in deep-blue Maryland.

—Irena Li, 538


Answer: There's probably not much difference between Trone and Alsobrooks

I don't think there would be much of a difference between Trone and Alsobrooks when it comes to their chances of winning the 2024 general election against Hogan. Yes, Trone performed somewhat better than Alsobrooks did in some early general election polls against Hogan. However, Alsobrooks wasn't as well-known as Hogan or Trone early on, given that Hogan is a popular former governor and Trone had been running ads since last May. Trone tried to use those polls to make the case that he was more "electable," but it's looking increasingly likely that his argument didn't work.

All in all, my guess is if you simulated this election 10,000 times with Alsobrooks and 10,000 times with Trone, the probability of a Democratic victory would be similarly high in either. That's not to say Hogan can't claim victory in November, but we're talking about deep-blue Maryland — it's going to be very hard for him to actually win.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Something to listen to while you wait!

It's going to be a minute before we start to get primary results this evening, so allow me to make a humble suggestion in the meantime: Listen to the 538 Politics podcast!

Yesterday I sat down with my colleagues Nathaniel and Geoffrey and friend of the pod Leah Askarinam to talk about the recent The New York Times/Siena College swing-state polls and preview tonight's races. In case you missed it, the polling was pretty bad for President Joe Biden. He trailed former President Donald Trump in every battleground state except Wisconsin and lagged by 12 percentage points in Nevada.

But there are some caveats in understanding what those polls mean at this point in the cycle. Most importantly, it's less that Trump has picked up ground than that Biden has lost it, and a big question over the next five and a half months will be whether Biden can gain that support back. There's a lot more to say, but I'll let you listen to find out!

As far as tonight's races go, we mainly focused on the important Democratic Senate primary in Maryland, where things are looking truly competitive. We also hit on a couple of House primaries that feature people who were in the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 — one Capitol police officer and one Trump supporter. Check it out!

—Galen Druke, 538