Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas primaries 2024: Cori Bush loses
The fields are set for Michigan's Senate and Missouri's governor contests.
Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states had yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. On Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas went to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.
The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hung in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive "Squad" member was defeated by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump was challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.
Meanwhile, both parties locked in their nominees for Michigan’s critical Senate race, and the outcomes of Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri’s next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields were set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines were drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Check out our full live blog below!
Latest headlines:
- McDonald Rivet projected winner in Michigan's 8th District Democratic primary
- Marlinga secures a rematch in Michigan's 10th
- Hudson projected to win GOP primary in Michigan's 3rd District
- Will Washington's 6th District get a bipartisan matchup or two Democrats in November?
- Baumgartner advances in Washington's 5th District
Bell leads the absentee vote in Missouri’s 1st
Both counties in Missouri’s 1st District have reported their absentee votes (in Missouri, absentee ballots are counted first, then in-person votes), and Bell has a big lead among them, 64 percent to 33 percent. That’s a strong showing, but absentee votes are just a fraction of the vote in Missouri (18 percent of the final expected total, according to the AP), so don’t count Bush out yet.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Are Republican women's groups in sync with their party?
We've been watching races where women are running this cycle, and according to our analysis through May 21 primaries, Republicans are nominating many fewer women than Democrats, this cycle. One factor likely contributing to that is on display tonight.
In several races, female candidates have backing from women's groups (like VIEW PAC, Maggie's List, or Winning for Women), but they are running up against candidates endorsed by Trump or the NRCC. Tonight in Kansas's 3rd District, Karen Crnkovich has an endorsement from VIEW PAC, but the NRCC and a slew of party leaders endorsed Prasanth Reddy. In Michigan's 8th, VIEW PAC and Winning for Women are supporting Mary Draves, but Paul Junge (who lost in 2022) has Trump's endorsement. And in Washington's 3rd District, VIEW PAC, Maggie's List, and Winning for Women are backing Leslie Lewallen, but Joe Kent has Trump's endorsement (Kent also lost in 2022). Parties have factions, of course, but it is interesting to see several examples of women's groups and other GOP groups in direct opposition, tonight, in some potentially consequential races.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Michigan Senate matchup is set
Well, that didn't take long. The Associated Press has projected that Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin will win her party's primary for Senate in Michigan, while on the GOP side the AP has also projected that former Rep. Mike Rogers will win. With around 11 percent of the expected vote reporting, Slotkin has about 76 percent of the vote, while Rogers has garnered about 70 percent against a multi-candidate field that includes former Rep. Justin Amash with 9 percent of the expected vote reporting.
Looking ahead to November, the Slotkin-Rogers matchup will represent one of the key contests on the 2024 Senate map, as the swing-state seat is open following the retirement of Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Kansas's 3rd is moving leftward
One other note about Kansas's 3rd District and why it's not a priority for Republicans. Look at Laura Kelly's margin's by congressional district in her 2018 race and 2022 reelection. While her statewide margin decreased from 5 points to 2 points, she actually improved on her performance in the 3rd, from a 15 percentage point to a 17 point win. (Kelly also won the 2nd District by 1 point in 2022, but Schmidt should have little trouble carrying it in a federal race — Democrats didn't seriously contest the seat in 2022, though they came close to flipping it in 2018.)
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections