If you were paying attention to the 2022 midterms, you may remember the major upset that was Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's win in Washington's 3rd District, north of Portland, Oregon. The 538 forecast back then showed Gluesenkamp Perez winning just 2 in 100 times over Republican Joe Kent in this red-leaning district. Now, it looks like we're poised for a rematch as Kent, alongside one other Republican and an independent, is running in the primary, hoping for the chance to unseat the freshman congresswoman in November.

Gluesenkamp Perez and Kent are most likely to make the ballot in November — they easily lead in fundraising and are neck-and-neck in polls. That would set up what looks to be a competitive race this fall. Kent, a former Green Beret and a 2020 election denier (who did concede his own 2022 loss following a recount), once again has the backing of Trump. And while Gluesenkamp Perez has proven to be a moderate Democrat in office (she is co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition), the results of this primary might give us a clue about whether she can once again overcome her district's conservative lean come November.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

In the competitive but blue-leaning 3rd District centered on Grand Rapids, two Republicans are battling to face Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten. The money race has been close, as businessman Michael Markey has raised $793,000 to attorney Paul Hudson's $630,000 (both have self-funded to a sizable extent). But Hudson may have the upper hand thanks to West Michigan for Change, an outside group funded by his brother that has spent $698,000 supporting Hudson or attacking Markey.

The race has become fairly ugly, as WMFC has argued that Markey supported the Green New Deal, a position associated with progressives, while Markey has sought to link Hudson to the Chinese Communist Party because Hudson once represented a Chinese auto parts supplier. We've seen no polls of this race, so it's hard to know who will advance to go up against Scholten, who looks likely to win renomination in her own primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

The GOP primary in Kansas's 3rd District has a clear frontrunner in Prasanth Reddy, a cancer physician, medical executive and Air Force reservist who's racked up endorsements (and funding) from the national party and prominent GOP leaders. Reddy has played up his immigrant background while emphasizing issues of border security and said he's running to counter "extremist" Democrats in Congress. He's pulled in over $1.3 million, more than eight times the funding as his only competitor in the primary, businesswoman Karen Crnkovich. But even if Reddy runs away with it, Tuesday's race is worth watching as a prequel to what could be a competitive contest this fall, when the winner will face off against Rep. Sharice Davids, the only Democrat in the state's congressional delegation and one of the GOP's top House targets this year.

The district, which includes much of the Kansas City metropolitan area, was redrawn ahead of the 2022 election to be more favorable to Republicans](). Under these lines, Biden would have won the district by a 4.5-point margin in 2020, but Davids outperformed him and held onto her seat comfortably with a 12-point win. Republicans will hope the political tides in this presidential cycle are more favorable to them in a district where they have a registration advantage, while Democrats are gearing up to defend Davids: The incumbent has raised $4.1 million, and the DCCC has already taken aim at Reddy by tying him to Trump-aligned Republicans and anti-abortion groups.

—Tia Yang, 538

In today's slate of gubernatorial and congressional primaries, Trump has endorsed 25 Republican contenders across 22 different races. If you're wondering why that doesn't seemingly add up, it's because Trump has endorsed more than one candidate in two different primaries: the gubernatorial race in Missouri and Washington's 4th District. Doing so has expanded the universe of potential winners with Trump's stamp of approval — but the perceived value of his endorsement will also be harder to ascertain in those primaries.

In Missouri, Trump told GOP primary voters they "can't go wrong" in their choice for governor. He endorsed Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel, all of whom are polling between about 16 and 26 percent in surveys ahead of today's vote. And while we don't have it in the table above, he also endorsed both of the high-profile Republican contenders in the state's attorney general primary, too.

Endorsing more than one candidate in the same race is a rare move for Trump, although it's one he's pulled in Missouri before. Back in 2022, he endorsed "ERIC" in the Show Me State's Republican primary for U.S. Senate, which happened to be the first name of both major GOP aspirants: former Gov. Eric Greitens and then-Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, the latter of whom won the primary and is now in the Senate.

Trump also endorsed two Republicans in Washington's 4th District: former NASCAR driver Jerrold Sessler and veterans advocate Tiffany Smiley. Trump is hoping that either Sessler, whom he endorsed first, or Smiley, whom he backed the weekend before the primary, can oust GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse, one of the two House Republicans still in Congress who voted to impeach Trump after the events of Jan. 6.

Overall, Trump's multi-endorsement approach has edged up this cycle. Besides the Missouri and Washington races, Trump also endorsed two major Republican candidates in the primary for Arizona's 8th District that took place last week.

Trump has endorsed in six other races that lack a Republican incumbent, all of whom appear favored to win their nominations. In Missouri's solidly red 3rd District, he's backed former state Sen. Bob Onder. In Kansas's safely Republican 2nd District, he's supporting former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt. In Michigan, Trump has endorsed former Rep. Mike Rogers in the state's pivotal open-seat Senate race, as well as two House candidates who lost in 2022: former state Sen. Tom Barrett and former Trump administration official Paul Junge, who are running in the open, Democratic-held 7th and 8th districts, respectively. Lastly, in Washington's swingy 3rd District, Trump is backing another defeated 2022 candidate: former Green Beret Joe Kent, who had Trump's support in the primary that year but later lost the general election to now-Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Democrat.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538