New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on
Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.
ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.
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Polls aren't missing Trump supporters, at least for now
In 2020, the general election polls missed Trump's support in key states, and the election came down to the wire. So far in 2024, though, polls don't seem to be understating Trump support. We'll see if that continues to hold.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
New Hampshire is dangerous terrain for incumbents
Something I’ve been turning over in my mind is whether Trump is more similar to an incumbent president seeking his party’s renomination, or to a candidate pursuing the nod in an open field. Trump has already been nominated twice by the GOP, and, obviously, occupied the White House for four years, making him perhaps one of the best-known people in the world. In that sense, he has a lot of the advantages of an incumbent. And it’s worth noting that some of the other presidents who have pursued non-consecutive terms, like Grover Cleveland and Theodore Roosevelt, also used the tools at their disposal — especially their ability to communicate with the public — to try to dominate their parties.
It matters for how we think about the eventual result. If Haley finishes with a strong second, that’s the kind of result that’s pointed to real vulnerability with past incumbents in New Hampshire. As Dan Hopkins pointed out earlier, competition in New Hampshire foreshadowed Lyndon B. Johnson’s decision not to run for reelection in 1968. George H.W. Bush was “jarred” in 1992 by Pat Buchanan taking 40 percent of the New Hampshire vote. And Gerald Ford had a narrow win over Ronald Reagan in 1976 in the vote totals, previewing not only a tough general election, but also brewing divisions in the GOP ranks.
This has implications for Biden as well, who is projected to win New Hampshire, despite not officially being on the ballot.
—Julia Azari, 538 contributor
Republicans see ideological differences between Trump and Haley (but didn't between Trump and DeSantis)
DeSantis and Haley were vying to be the last opponent standing to Trump, and with DeSantis suspending his campaign over the weekend, Haley got her wish. An interesting side-effect is that we now have more of an ideological race. In a November 2023 survey, I found that Republicans evaluated Trump and DeSantis as similarly conservative. Haley, however, they saw as more moderate. So with DeSantis's departure, we have a clearer ideological divide.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
Trump's double whammy
Trump tonight did something no Republican presidential candidate has done since President Ford in 1976: win both Iowa and New Hampshire in a contested primary. As I've been saying for a while, Trump is effectively the incumbent in this process — much in the same way that Ford was an incumbent with an asterisk in 1976. (He was the sitting president, but nobody had voted for him for anything.)
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections