As Dan mentioned earlier, the pre-election polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire didn’t seem to be missing Trump voters. But if Biden stays at 67 percent, as Nathaniel observed, it looks like polls of the Democratic primary in New Hampshire might have understated Biden’s support by quite a bit.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Edison Research, from which we get our election results, is separating out write-in votes for Biden in the Democratic primary. And with 17 percent of the expected vote reporting, Biden write-ins account for 67 percent of the vote. Phillips is pulling 20 percent, other write-ins are taking 6 percent and Williamson is getting 4 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Geoffrey, I wonder if Nevada will factor into Haley’s decision about whether to drop out. If she does get some favorable media attention from winning the primary, maybe that will improve her standing in South Carolina. Alternatively, if “none of the above” embarrasses her, maybe she’ll drop out.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Haley focused her speech on South Carolina's Feb. 24 primary. But that's not technically the next contest in the Republican presidential primary. The next Republican electoral event is actually Nevada's GOP primary on Feb. 6. However, the Nevada GOP opted against using the state-run primary and instead will use caucuses on Feb. 8 to allocate delegates to candidates. As a result, the Nevada primary is a kind of "beauty contest" — a vote with no bearing on delegate allocation.

But it gets a bit stranger from there. As part of the filing rules for the caucuses, the Nevada GOP required candidates to not enter the primary taking place two days earlier. Some candidates, including Trump, didn't file for the primary. But Haley, perhaps thinking Trump winning the caucuses was a sure thing, filed for the primary and not the caucuses. So now Haley is essentially unopposed in the primary — there are a few minor candidates and drop-outs like Tim Scott and Mike Pence — and Trump is unopposed in the caucuses. Will Haley be able to play up a win in Nevada? Unclear.

But it's also possible that pro-Trump Republicans could make a concerted effort to take advantage of Nevada's unusual "none of these candidates" ballot option. Encouraging Trump voters to cast a vote for none of the above could keep Haley from winning with a majority, should enough choose it. All of this may feel about as crazy as putting your life's savings on black at the roulette table. However, state parties can opt against using a state-run primary to allocate their delegates and instead use a party-run event like a caucus — there are many examples throughout the history of presidential nomination contests. It's just not usually something that happens in an early-voting state.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Coming into today, a big question was whether independents would turn out a high level and put Haley in a competitive position versus Trump. Based on the preliminary exit poll, the answer was yes — but not enough for Haley to win. Overall, 45 percent of voters identified as independent or something else, and they went for Haley by 24 points, 61 percent to 37 percent. However, self-identified Republicans made up 4 percent of the electorate and. broke for Trump by 39 points, 74 percent to 25 percent. Even with a little help from the 6 percent who identified as Democrats (went for Haley 84 percent to 6 percent), Haley couldn't catch Trump because of his overwhelming edge among Republicans.

Another aspect of the independent question is New Hampshire's electoral access rules, which permit those not registered with a party — "undeclared" voters — to vote in party primaries. That group, which includes many self-identified independents, did turn out in a big way, making up 47 percent of the electorate to registered Republicans' 50 percent (same-day registrants made up the rest). And Haley won among undeclared voters 66 percent to 32 percent. But Trump won among registered Republicans 74 percent to 24 percent. These numbers will change somewhat after further weighting based on the results, but the big takeaway is that independents put Haley in range, but Trump's dominance among Republicans preserved his edge.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538