Dan mentioned that voters see more ideological space between Haley and Trump, than they did between DeSantis and Trump. It's worth noting that Haley will appear more moderate to lots of people, just because she is a woman.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

The presidential primaries aren’t the only races of note happening in New Hampshire tonight. There are also special elections for two seats in New Hampshire’s closely divided state House (Republicans have a 198-195 majority, with three independents and four vacancies, including those two).

And it looks like Republicans are on track to flip one of those seats that was previously held by a Democrat: According to Decision Desk HQ, Republican Michael Murphy leads Democrat Edith Tucker in Coos County District 6, 57 percent to 43 percent, with an estimated 82 percent of the vote counted. Although Biden carried this district by 12 points in 2020, the contested Republican presidential primary probably led to disproportionate turnout among Republicans.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

As more data comes in, we can get more precise estimates of the factors that predict where in New Hampshire Trump is doing especially well. One answer won't surprise readers: if one town's population has more college-educated adults by 20 percentage points, Trump's average vote share drops by 11 points. But in a state with a small immigrant population, it's noteworthy that towns with more foreign-born residents also tend to give lower levels of support to Trump.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

Astute point from an astute guy.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

At around 4:30 p.m., Americans for Prosperity Regional Director Greg Moore said on X (formerly Twitter) that he'd heard from sources in the New Hampshire secretary of state office that towns around the state had gone through more than 80 percent of GOP primary ballots available statewide, and that some towns were calling to ask for more to avoid running out. Polls in much of the state closed at 7 p.m Eastern, but a few places are open until 8 p.m.

Now, the Koch-affiliated AFP endorsed Haley to much fanfare earlier this cycle, so high turnout certainly would make Haley supporters feel hopeful about the number of independent voters taking part in the primary, who generally are more likely to support Haley than Trump. Still, ABC News's current total expected vote total in New Hampshire is 330,000 votes. Although that figure may change as the night wears on — it could go higher or lower — that many votes would represent nearly 30 percent of the state's entire voting-eligible population — that is, anyone who is eligible to register and vote. A turnout rate at that mark would be on par with the highest turnout in the state's modern history, which was the highly-competitive 2008 Democratic presidential primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538