New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on
Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.
ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.
Latest headlines:
Not all nominees win New Hampshire
Worth remembering that in 2020, the person who ultimately won the Democratic primary finished ... checks notes ... fifth in New Hampshire.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
Can polls measure electability 10 months out?
In her speech, Haley mentioned polling showing her beating Joe Biden while Trump does not. Can you trust those findings? When I analyzed the same question in 2016, I found that voters who said they'd back one candidate but not another during the primary often mean it during the general.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
Answer: Reasonable for Haley to play for time
This race is unprecedented in recent history, with a twice-impeached president seeking to return to the White House. Given that, and given that so many delegates are still outstanding, I can see why Haley wouldn't want to throw in the towel quite as quickly as a candidate might in prior years.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
Answer: Haley has some time to decide
I agree with Geoffrey on this one. While she claims to be in it for the long haul, the truth is that Haley has plenty of time to think about her decision. With a month till South Carolina votes, she can take a beat to see if the polls change or the money dries up. If she finds her position deteriorating, there's always time to make an exit before South Carolina starts voting, and I don't know that there would be much difference, other than possibly some short-term embarrassment, between dropping out now or next week.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Signs of high turnout in the Republican primary
At around 4:30 p.m., Americans for Prosperity Regional Director Greg Moore said on X (formerly Twitter) that he'd heard from sources in the New Hampshire secretary of state office that towns around the state had gone through more than 80 percent of GOP primary ballots available statewide, and that some towns were calling to ask for more to avoid running out. Polls in much of the state closed at 7 p.m Eastern, but a few places are open until 8 p.m.
Now, the Koch-affiliated AFP endorsed Haley to much fanfare earlier this cycle, so high turnout certainly would make Haley supporters feel hopeful about the number of independent voters taking part in the primary, who generally are more likely to support Haley than Trump. Still, ABC News's current total expected vote total in New Hampshire is 330,000 votes. Although that figure may change as the night wears on — it could go higher or lower — that many votes would represent nearly 30 percent of the state's entire voting-eligible population — that is, anyone who is eligible to register and vote. A turnout rate at that mark would be on par with the highest turnout in the state's modern history, which was the highly-competitive 2008 Democratic presidential primary.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538