As Meredith and Monica noted, Haley really emphasized electability in her speech. The difficulty with that argument is that poll after poll shows Republicans think Trump is electable in the general. For example, this YouGov/The Economist poll from early January shows 82 percent of Republicans saying Trump would definitely or probably win the general election, but only 37 percent say the same about Haley.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Haley promised to stay in the primary race at a speech tonight just after 8 p.m., when most news organizations had projected the race for Trump. She again made her pitch as one of electability, and slightly attacked the front-runner, Trump, to cheers from the crowd. "The worst kept secret in politics is how badly the Democrats want to run against Donald Trump," she said, saying Biden could defeat him but that she could win. With Trump, the story is court cases, chaos, and senior moments, she said. "I've long called for mental competency tests for politicians over the age of 75," she said. "Trump claims he'd do better than me in one of those tests. If he thinks that, then he should have no problem standing on a debate stage with me." It's unlikely Trump would debate her, but the crowd in New Hampshire ate it up, calling Trump a loser and geriatric. "The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate will win this election," she said. We'll see in her home state of South Carolina, in about a month.

—Monica Potts, 538

Dan, I'm not sure why Trump would risk getting on stage with her, especially when he can just snipe from Truth Social or in whatever town halls get scheduled between now and then. Avoiding the debates has worked wonderfully for Trump so far, and now that he's won New Hampshire, I don't see him adjusting that strategy. I think it would take an actual loss for him to feel pressured to show up. In fact, I don't think we'll see Trump on a debate stage at all this cycle, in the primary or general election.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

In her post-primary speech, Haley tries to goad Trump into a debate. The question is: can Trump resist calls to debate in the long interregnum between now and the South Carolina primary? He has resisted them so far.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

At around 4:30 p.m., Americans for Prosperity Regional Director Greg Moore said on X (formerly Twitter) that he'd heard from sources in the New Hampshire secretary of state office that towns around the state had gone through more than 80 percent of GOP primary ballots available statewide, and that some towns were calling to ask for more to avoid running out. Polls in much of the state closed at 7 p.m Eastern, but a few places are open until 8 p.m.

Now, the Koch-affiliated AFP endorsed Haley to much fanfare earlier this cycle, so high turnout certainly would make Haley supporters feel hopeful about the number of independent voters taking part in the primary, who generally are more likely to support Haley than Trump. Still, ABC News's current total expected vote total in New Hampshire is 330,000 votes. Although that figure may change as the night wears on — it could go higher or lower — that many votes would represent nearly 30 percent of the state's entire voting-eligible population — that is, anyone who is eligible to register and vote. A turnout rate at that mark would be on par with the highest turnout in the state's modern history, which was the highly-competitive 2008 Democratic presidential primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538