Dan mentioned that voters see more ideological space between Haley and Trump, than they did between DeSantis and Trump. It's worth noting that Haley will appear more moderate to lots of people, just because she is a woman.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

The presidential primaries aren’t the only races of note happening in New Hampshire tonight. There are also special elections for two seats in New Hampshire’s closely divided state House (Republicans have a 198-195 majority, with three independents and four vacancies, including those two).

And it looks like Republicans are on track to flip one of those seats that was previously held by a Democrat: According to Decision Desk HQ, Republican Michael Murphy leads Democrat Edith Tucker in Coos County District 6, 57 percent to 43 percent, with an estimated 82 percent of the vote counted. Although Biden carried this district by 12 points in 2020, the contested Republican presidential primary probably led to disproportionate turnout among Republicans.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

As more data comes in, we can get more precise estimates of the factors that predict where in New Hampshire Trump is doing especially well. One answer won't surprise readers: if one town's population has more college-educated adults by 20 percentage points, Trump's average vote share drops by 11 points. But in a state with a small immigrant population, it's noteworthy that towns with more foreign-born residents also tend to give lower levels of support to Trump.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

Astute point from an astute guy.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

New Hampshire is one of the least religious states in the country. That might help explain why Trump’s closest competitor, Haley, has closed in on his lead a bit there: He’s at 54 percent to her 36 percent. While in 2016, evangelical Christians and regular churchgoers were reluctant to throw their support behind Trump, this key Republican voting bloc is now his solid base. And they’re missing in this first-in-the-nation primary.

In Iowa last week, Trump improved on his 2016 caucuses performance by 35 points in the most evangelical areas of the state, according to a Washington Post analysis. That’s just the latest evidence that evangelical voters are his to lose. In the 2020 general election, he won 59 percent of voters who attend church at least monthly, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. More than that, Trump moved many of his voters to identify as evangelical Christian, regardless of their church attendance habits.

Evangelicals remain one of the most motivated, active parts of the Republican Party nationwide, and, without that, Trump’s campaign might be missing a little steam. In addition to being less religious, New Hampshire residents have other identity markers that pull them further from Trump’s base. It’s one of the most educated states in the country, and has had an active Libertarian Party. In this respect, New Hampshire Republicans are a bit different from their fellow party members in other states. All of these factors might be giving Haley a small opening, but Trump is still favored to win.

Looking beyond that toward November, New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election save one since 1992. So while the eventual Republican nominee will have a shot, the less religious nature of New Hampshire might be a sign that the state is simply becoming more solidly Democratic like its New England neighbors, at least when it comes to presidential elections.

—Monica Potts, 538