New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on
Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.
ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.
Latest headlines:
How many Democratic write-ins are for Biden?
This is just one town, but in Belmont, Biden won about three-fourths of the write-in votes.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Lebanon goes for Haley, but not overwhelmingly
Lebanon, New Hampshire, is a town with many college graduates on the Connecticut River just south of Hanover. Haley has 62 percent of the vote their. However, Trump grew his vote share there, too — from 22 percent to in 2016 to 37 percent today.
— Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
Haley probably running behind where she needs to be
The capital city of Concord has just about fully reported now, based on data from ABC News. With 95 percent of the expected vote reported, Haley leads there by 8 points, 54 percent to 46 percent. That sounds great for her, but this is probably short of where she needs to be. Concord is a solid Democratic-leaning place — Biden won it by about 32 points in 2020 — so the registered independents here might be more favorable to her. But in the 2016 GOP primary, Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson combined for 41 percent in Concord, yet Trump has 46 percent right now. To have any chance, Haley probably needs places like this to be even more robust for her.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Trump’s evangelical base is missing in New Hampshire
New Hampshire is one of the least religious states in the country. That might help explain why Trump’s closest competitor, Haley, has closed in on his lead a bit there: He’s at 54 percent to her 36 percent. While in 2016, evangelical Christians and regular churchgoers were reluctant to throw their support behind Trump, this key Republican voting bloc is now his solid base. And they’re missing in this first-in-the-nation primary.
In Iowa last week, Trump improved on his 2016 caucuses performance by 35 points in the most evangelical areas of the state, according to a Washington Post analysis. That’s just the latest evidence that evangelical voters are his to lose. In the 2020 general election, he won 59 percent of voters who attend church at least monthly, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. More than that, Trump moved many of his voters to identify as evangelical Christian, regardless of their church attendance habits.
Evangelicals remain one of the most motivated, active parts of the Republican Party nationwide, and, without that, Trump’s campaign might be missing a little steam. In addition to being less religious, New Hampshire residents have other identity markers that pull them further from Trump’s base. It’s one of the most educated states in the country, and has had an active Libertarian Party. In this respect, New Hampshire Republicans are a bit different from their fellow party members in other states. All of these factors might be giving Haley a small opening, but Trump is still favored to win.
Looking beyond that toward November, New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election save one since 1992. So while the eventual Republican nominee will have a shot, the less religious nature of New Hampshire might be a sign that the state is simply becoming more solidly Democratic like its New England neighbors, at least when it comes to presidential elections.
—Monica Potts, 538