New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on
Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.
ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.
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New Hampshire GOP voters know the difference a candidate can make come November
If there's any state where Republican primary voters are likely to worry about Trump's ability to win in November, it might just be New Hampshire. In 2010, after the establishment-backed Kelly Ayotte won the GOP Senate primary there by a hair, she won the general election by more than 20 percentage points. In 2022, however, after the Trump-style Don Bolduc narrowly prevailed in the GOP Senate primary, he lost the general by almost 10 points.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
Write-ins lead on the Democratic side
The Associated Press (via The New York Times) is showing 12 percent of the expected vote already counted on the Democratic side. Write-ins — likely mostly votes for Biden — lead with 73 percent, followed by Phillips at 22 percent and Williamson at 4 percent. That would be a robust showing for the president.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Signs of high turnout in the Republican primary
At around 4:30 p.m., Americans for Prosperity Regional Director Greg Moore said on X (formerly Twitter) that he'd heard from sources in the New Hampshire secretary of state office that towns around the state had gone through more than 80 percent of GOP primary ballots available statewide, and that some towns were calling to ask for more to avoid running out. Polls in much of the state closed at 7 p.m Eastern, but a few places are open until 8 p.m.
Now, the Koch-affiliated AFP endorsed Haley to much fanfare earlier this cycle, so high turnout certainly would make Haley supporters feel hopeful about the number of independent voters taking part in the primary, who generally are more likely to support Haley than Trump. Still, ABC News's current total expected vote total in New Hampshire is 330,000 votes. Although that figure may change as the night wears on — it could go higher or lower — that many votes would represent nearly 30 percent of the state's entire voting-eligible population — that is, anyone who is eligible to register and vote. A turnout rate at that mark would be on par with the highest turnout in the state's modern history, which was the highly-competitive 2008 Democratic presidential primary.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Most GOP voters see no trade-off between top choice, electability
Four years ago, Democratic primary voters faced a situation similar to Republicans today: they were choosing a presidential nominee to unseat an incumbent with a low approval rating. But there's an important difference. Democrats emphasized electability, and though Biden was few Democrats' top pick — having finished fourth in Iowa and then fifth in New Hampshire — he benefited from the perception that he would run well against Trump.
For today's Republicans, the situation is much simpler: Trump is both the overwhelming first choice and the candidate they view as most electable. In a November 2023 survey that I conducted with the pollster YouGov, I found that 66 percent of Republican primary voters nationally backed Trump, but also that 72 percent of them thought that Trump was most likely to beat Biden. Despite some polling showing Haley running better against Biden nationally, most Republican primary voters see no trade-off between backing their preferred candidate (Trump) and winning in November.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
Trump’s evangelical base is missing in New Hampshire
New Hampshire is one of the least religious states in the country. That might help explain why Trump’s closest competitor, Haley, has closed in on his lead a bit there: He’s at 54 percent to her 36 percent. While in 2016, evangelical Christians and regular churchgoers were reluctant to throw their support behind Trump, this key Republican voting bloc is now his solid base. And they’re missing in this first-in-the-nation primary.
In Iowa last week, Trump improved on his 2016 caucuses performance by 35 points in the most evangelical areas of the state, according to a Washington Post analysis. That’s just the latest evidence that evangelical voters are his to lose. In the 2020 general election, he won 59 percent of voters who attend church at least monthly, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. More than that, Trump moved many of his voters to identify as evangelical Christian, regardless of their church attendance habits.
Evangelicals remain one of the most motivated, active parts of the Republican Party nationwide, and, without that, Trump’s campaign might be missing a little steam. In addition to being less religious, New Hampshire residents have other identity markers that pull them further from Trump’s base. It’s one of the most educated states in the country, and has had an active Libertarian Party. In this respect, New Hampshire Republicans are a bit different from their fellow party members in other states. All of these factors might be giving Haley a small opening, but Trump is still favored to win.
Looking beyond that toward November, New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election save one since 1992. So while the eventual Republican nominee will have a shot, the less religious nature of New Hampshire might be a sign that the state is simply becoming more solidly Democratic like its New England neighbors, at least when it comes to presidential elections.
—Monica Potts, 538