Tired of presidential primary politics but still looking for an election fix? We’ve got just the ticket! Tonight we’ll be your guides to the special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District, which became vacant when former Rep. George Santos was expelled from the House on Dec. 1. We’re watching to see whether Democratic former Rep. Tom Suozzi will reclaim his seat in Congress or whether Nassau County Legislator Mazi Pilip will hold the seat for Republicans despite Santos’s long shadow.

Today’s winner will represent the Long Island-based district only for the remainder of 2024, but there are a few reasons both parties are treating it as a bigger deal than that. For one, the race will have an immediate impact on House Republicans’ increasingly untenable single-digit majority. The winner could very well serve as a tiebreaking vote on critical legislation in coming weeks and months.

In the longer view, the contest has offered an opportunity for parties to test out strategies and build momentum for House contests this fall. The 3rd District is a decent proxy for expected battle lines in November — the path to the House majority in 2024 could very well run through blue-leaning suburbs like this one, and specifically through the New York swing seats that helped hand Republicans their majority in 2022.

As for timing, polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern. Results will likely start to trickle in shortly after that, but given New York’s history of slow vote-counting and the expected closeness of the election, we could be in for a late night. Stick with us for full results and analysis from the Suozzi-Pilip faceoff, plus a handful of state legislative special elections that are also being held today — including one that will determine which party controls the Pennsylvania House of Representatives.

—Tia Yang, 538