New York, Colorado and Utah primaries 2024: Bowman loses, Boebert wins
Three Trump-endorsed candidates also lost in Republican primaries.
June 25 was one of the most jam-packed primary election days of the year: Democrats and Republicans in Colorado, New York, Utah and parts of South Carolina picked their party's nominees for this fall's elections.
Two incumbent representatives — Jamaal Bowman and Lauren Boebert — who have made enemies inside and outside their own parties faced serious challengers in their primaries, but they met with different fates. Bowman lost to a more moderate Democrat, George Latimer, in what was the most expensive congressional primary in history. However, Boebert easily prevailed in her Republican primary despite running in an entirely new district.
It was also a bad night for former President Donald Trump. Going into these primaries, only one candidate he had endorsed for Senate, House or governor had lost; tonight alone, three did, including his preferred candidate to replace retiring Sen. Mitt Romney in Utah.
In addition, the fields are now set in some key congressional matchups this fall. In Colorado, Republicans avoided nominating far-right candidates who could have put normally safe red districts in play. Meanwhile, Democrats picked their fighters in two competitive New York House districts that could help them reclaim the House majority.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Mannion projected to win in New York's 22nd Congressional District
With 76 percent of the expected vote reporting, Mannion is projected to win the Democratic primary in the 22nd Congressional District in New York, according to the AP. He has 62 percent of the vote so far, while Hood has 38 percent. As I wrote earlier, the race had seemed closer in its final days, but ended up being an easy victor for the state senator. He has a good chance of winning against incumbent Williams this November, as redistricting has made the district bluer.
—Monica Potts, 538
Checking in on candidates of color
Most of the candidates of color we were tracking tonight were New York incumbents who ran in uncontested primaries (or easily won, in the case of Ocasio-Cortez), with the notable exception of Bowman, who is projected to lose his bid for reelection by a big margin to his challenger, Latimer.
On the GOP side, it looks like Evans will be the only one candidate of color to win a contested race tonight. Trump-endorsed Burns projected to lose his runoff in South Carolina to Biggs, and Yu seems headed to a last-place finish in his race in Colorado's 4th congressional district, which Boebert is projected to win. Joshi is projected to lose in Colorado's 8th district, and Varela is projected to lose against Hurd in the 3rd congressional district, Boebert's current seat.
—Monica Potts, 538
First results from Utah's 3rd District
With 33 percent of the expected vote counted in Utah's 3rd District, it's shaping up to be a close GOP primary. All five candidates are currently in double digits. State Sen. Mike Kennedy leads with 31 percent, followed by Roosevelt Mayor JR Bird (25 percent), trampoline tycoon Case Lawrence (21 percent), Mitt Romney’s relative Stewart Peay (13 percent) and state auditor John Dougall (10 percent).
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Mannion still leading in New York's 22nd
With 72 percent of the expected vote reporting, Mannion is still leading Hood, 62 percent to 38 percent, according to the AP. It's a more wide-open race than was expected, especially with the accusations against Mannion of a toxic work environment surfacing against him in recent days. Hood doesn't have much time to make up ground.
—Monica Potts, 538
Can Democrats surprise in another House special election?
Amid the many primaries taking place tonight, voters in Colorado's 4th District are also choosing their next member of Congress. Buck, frustrated with his own party, resigned from the House early, triggering a special election to fill out the remainder of his term.
Though Boebert is running for a full term in this district, she isn't running in the special. Instead, Republicans nominated Greg Lopez, the former mayor of Parker, Colorado, and a 2022 candidate for governor. Lopez faces Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a speechwriter, in what should be an uncompetitive special election tonight.
But there's at least an outside possibility the race could surprise us. Democrats recently overperformed in another House special election, in Ohio's 6th District, that was thought to be a walkover for the GOP. That seat, vacated by Republican Bill Johnson, had voted for Trump by 29 percentage points in 2020, but the GOP nominee won by 9 points, an overperformance of 20 percent. Colorado's 4th District voted for Trump by 19 points in 2020, so a similar overperformance would result in a very tight race.
However, there are plenty of reasons why that may not be the case. Unlike in Ohio, where the special election was the only race happening in the state and turnout was in the basement, the Colorado special election is concurrent with a statewide primary race that will boost turnout. And in the 4th District specifically, a contentious primary featuring Boebert and a bunch of other candidates will probably boost Republican turnout specifically.
But it wouldn't take a Calvarese win to be good news for Democrats. Historically, special election results have some predictive power, and Democrats have been putting together a healthy record so far ahead of the 2024 elections. Since the beginning of 2023, Democrats have overperformed partisanship in House special elections by 7 points, according to a 538 analysis, and in special elections overall by a similar margin.
At a moment when national polling looks middling at best for Democrats, a stronger-than-expected showing tonight could provide some much-needed comfort.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections