On the whole, House Republicans got good news tonight, especially in Colorado. Having Evans, Crank and Hurd as their nominees doesn’t guarantee they’ll win (maybe just the 5th District), but it substantially raises the party's chances of winning each of those seats compared to what any of their unsuccessful primary opponents' odds would have looked like. Elsewhere, GOP leadership avoided a firebrand winning a safe seat in South Carolina and can enjoy a little schadenfreude as Bowman loses in New York’s 16th District, while Mondaire Jones gets an additional headache in the highly competitive 17th District by losing the Working Families Party primary.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

As Mary wrote earlier, only 3 percent of New Yorkers said that abortion was a key issue in advance of these primaries, down from 11 percent last year. Abortion access is protected in the state, but Democrats were hoping to nationalize it as an issue to win key races this fall. A vote for a Republican in the House or Senate, the thinking goes, is one step closer to a national abortion ban.

However, that strategy didn’t work for Klee Hood, who made access to abortion a centerpiece of her campaign. She lost to Mannion, who also supports abortion rights but also supports some restrictions after 24 weeks. If that issue isn’t as top of mind for New York voters, or other blue state voters, by the time November comes, that could make it harder for Democrats to gain an advantage in tighter general election races in close districts. That’s especially because voters do still care a lot about economic issues and rate Biden’s handling of the economy poorly. Whether abortion will be as much of a deciding factor this year as it was in the midterms, which proved to be good for Democrats, remains one of the biggest questions of this election cycle.

—Monica Potts, 538

We've talked a lot about the many millions AIPAC spent to take down Bowman in New York's 16th District and about losing GOP candidates who faced sizable outside opposition from groups that opposed more anti-establishment Republicans in primaries. In many of these cases, these outside groups came in and spent a lot of money to oppose or support a candidate, and, unsurprisingly, that influenced the outcome!

But the candidates also mattered a great deal in making outside groups' lines of attack and support count in these primaries. Bowman wasn't that strong to begin with, for instance, and he'd made headlines for many wrong reasons in recent months. Someone like Williams in Colorado had angered a lot of people in his party, making it easier for the sizable outside investment against him to work. In South Carolina, Burns had Trump's endorsement, but he also had a very controversial background that may have encouraged outside groups to invest in Biggs to beat him.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Trump's out-of-pocket endorsements of non-incumbent, contested candidates who really didn’t seem favored to win were a gamble that didn’t pay off. What it did demonstrate is that a Trump endorsement, though it does carry weight in a Republican primary, is not the Midas touch he likes to pretend it is.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Amid the many primaries taking place tonight, voters in Colorado's 4th District are also choosing their next member of Congress. Buck, frustrated with his own party, resigned from the House early, triggering a special election to fill out the remainder of his term.

Though Boebert is running for a full term in this district, she isn't running in the special. Instead, Republicans nominated Greg Lopez, the former mayor of Parker, Colorado, and a 2022 candidate for governor. Lopez faces Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a speechwriter, in what should be an uncompetitive special election tonight.

But there's at least an outside possibility the race could surprise us. Democrats recently overperformed in another House special election, in Ohio's 6th District, that was thought to be a walkover for the GOP. That seat, vacated by Republican Bill Johnson, had voted for Trump by 29 percentage points in 2020, but the GOP nominee won by 9 points, an overperformance of 20 percent. Colorado's 4th District voted for Trump by 19 points in 2020, so a similar overperformance would result in a very tight race.

However, there are plenty of reasons why that may not be the case. Unlike in Ohio, where the special election was the only race happening in the state and turnout was in the basement, the Colorado special election is concurrent with a statewide primary race that will boost turnout. And in the 4th District specifically, a contentious primary featuring Boebert and a bunch of other candidates will probably boost Republican turnout specifically.

But it wouldn't take a Calvarese win to be good news for Democrats. Historically, special election results have some predictive power, and Democrats have been putting together a healthy record so far ahead of the 2024 elections. Since the beginning of 2023, Democrats have overperformed partisanship in House special elections by 7 points, according to a 538 analysis, and in special elections overall by a similar margin.

At a moment when national polling looks middling at best for Democrats, a stronger-than-expected showing tonight could provide some much-needed comfort.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections