The AP projects that former CNN anchor John Avlon will win the Democratic nomination in New York's 1st District. He's leading 2020 nominee and chemistry professor Nancy Goroff, 70 to 30 percent, with 80 percent of the expected vote reporting. Avlon faces an uphill battle against GOP Rep. Nick LaLota this fall, as Long Island has gotten to be very fraught territory for Democrats.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

With Biggs projected to win her South Carolina runoff, she's the first winning candidate (in a contested race) in our anti-abortion tracker. In an interview with The State newspaper, she said, "I am firmly against abortion except in the rarest and most extreme circumstances when the life of the mother is in immediate and severe danger and all other medical options have been exhausted." She said she otherwise does not support abortion at any stage of pregnancy. South Carolina does not allow abortion after six weeks, but such strict views are unpopular even in the state. A Winthrop University poll from May found that nearly half, 48 percent, of adults in the state opposed the ban, while 31 percent supported it.

Boebert has also won her primary contest in Colorado's 4th District, a deep red district where both her challengers were also on this list.

—Monica Potts, 538

The AP has projected that Westchester County Executive George Latimer will defeat Rep. Jamaal Bowman in the Democratic primary for New York's 16th District. With 60 percent of the expected vote reporting, Latimer leads about 55 percent to 45 percent. While Bowman has performed extremely well in the small part of the district located in the Bronx, most of the seat is in Westchester, which Latimer is carrying handily. This race was defined largely by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Hamas conflict and the influence of pro-Israel groups, although controversies about Bowman's past behavior certainly made him more vulnerable. Most notably, though, United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with the pro-Israel group AIPAC, spent $14.8 million to take down Bowman, who like many in the progressive "Squad" has been sharply critical of Israel's military operations in Gaza (although he also condemned Hamas, too).

Bowman becomes the first Democratic incumbent to lose renomination this cycle and probably the third to lose a primary overall. Republican Rep. Jerry Carl of Alabama lost renomination in an incumbent-versus-incumbent race brought about by redistricting in March, while Republican Rep. Bob Good appears likely to lose his primary in Virginia, although the June 18 primary result was close and Good intends to pay for a recount.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

There's a reason why we average! The Ohio race was super sleepy. This Colorado race was taking place at the same time as a high-profile Republican primary election in the same district. Best not to read anything too much into any individual result.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Amid the many primaries taking place tonight, voters in Colorado's 4th District are also choosing their next member of Congress. Buck, frustrated with his own party, resigned from the House early, triggering a special election to fill out the remainder of his term.

Though Boebert is running for a full term in this district, she isn't running in the special. Instead, Republicans nominated Greg Lopez, the former mayor of Parker, Colorado, and a 2022 candidate for governor. Lopez faces Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a speechwriter, in what should be an uncompetitive special election tonight.

But there's at least an outside possibility the race could surprise us. Democrats recently overperformed in another House special election, in Ohio's 6th District, that was thought to be a walkover for the GOP. That seat, vacated by Republican Bill Johnson, had voted for Trump by 29 percentage points in 2020, but the GOP nominee won by 9 points, an overperformance of 20 percent. Colorado's 4th District voted for Trump by 19 points in 2020, so a similar overperformance would result in a very tight race.

However, there are plenty of reasons why that may not be the case. Unlike in Ohio, where the special election was the only race happening in the state and turnout was in the basement, the Colorado special election is concurrent with a statewide primary race that will boost turnout. And in the 4th District specifically, a contentious primary featuring Boebert and a bunch of other candidates will probably boost Republican turnout specifically.

But it wouldn't take a Calvarese win to be good news for Democrats. Historically, special election results have some predictive power, and Democrats have been putting together a healthy record so far ahead of the 2024 elections. Since the beginning of 2023, Democrats have overperformed partisanship in House special elections by 7 points, according to a 538 analysis, and in special elections overall by a similar margin.

At a moment when national polling looks middling at best for Democrats, a stronger-than-expected showing tonight could provide some much-needed comfort.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections