Greg Lopez, the Republican nominee in the special election in Colorado’s 4th District (to fill Rep. Buck's vacant seat), is well ahead with about two-thirds of the vote counted so far. According to the AP, he leads Democrat Trisha Calvarese, 55-38 percent. That 17-point margin is roughly in line with how the district voted in the last presidential election (for Trump by 19 points).

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Perhaps uniquely among states that have held their primaries so far, Colorado voters are particularly concerned with on housing, according to a March poll from New Bridge Strategy/Aspect Strategic/The Colorado Polling Institute. Asked in an open-ended question to name the most important issue for the state government to address, 23 percent of likely voters in the state named homelessness, housing affordability or lack of housing — more than any other issue area. Twenty-one percent named issues related to the economy, including taxes, the cost of living, jobs and inflation. Fourteen percent named issues related to immigration. No other issues were named by more than 6 percent of respondents.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

The AP projects that Biggs has defeated Burns in the GOP runoff in South Carolina's 3rd District. With more than 95 percent of the expected vote reporting, she leads 51.1 percent to 48.9 percent — what looks to be a narrow win. This is a somewhat surprising result: Trump had endorsed Burns, who led in the initial primary vote on June 11 and even had an endorsement from the third-place finisher.

But Biggs may have triumphed thanks to more than $500,000 in outside help from two conservative super PACs that have been spending against more anti-establishment candidates in GOP primaries like Burns. Per FEC data, Conservatives for American Excellence and America Leads Action spent mostly against Burns but also made some outlays to support Biggs.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

With 24 percent of the expected vote in, Mannion is leading Hood in the Democratic primary in the 22nd Congressional District, 60 percent to 40 percent, according to the AP. Hood had hoped to position herself to Mannion's left on issues like abortion and has a fundraising advantage, as Geoffrey wrote earlier. But Mannion, a state Senator, is a well-known entity in much of the district.

—Monica Potts, 538

Amid the many primaries taking place tonight, voters in Colorado's 4th District are also choosing their next member of Congress. Buck, frustrated with his own party, resigned from the House early, triggering a special election to fill out the remainder of his term.

Though Boebert is running for a full term in this district, she isn't running in the special. Instead, Republicans nominated Greg Lopez, the former mayor of Parker, Colorado, and a 2022 candidate for governor. Lopez faces Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a speechwriter, in what should be an uncompetitive special election tonight.

But there's at least an outside possibility the race could surprise us. Democrats recently overperformed in another House special election, in Ohio's 6th District, that was thought to be a walkover for the GOP. That seat, vacated by Republican Bill Johnson, had voted for Trump by 29 percentage points in 2020, but the GOP nominee won by 9 points, an overperformance of 20 percent. Colorado's 4th District voted for Trump by 19 points in 2020, so a similar overperformance would result in a very tight race.

However, there are plenty of reasons why that may not be the case. Unlike in Ohio, where the special election was the only race happening in the state and turnout was in the basement, the Colorado special election is concurrent with a statewide primary race that will boost turnout. And in the 4th District specifically, a contentious primary featuring Boebert and a bunch of other candidates will probably boost Republican turnout specifically.

But it wouldn't take a Calvarese win to be good news for Democrats. Historically, special election results have some predictive power, and Democrats have been putting together a healthy record so far ahead of the 2024 elections. Since the beginning of 2023, Democrats have overperformed partisanship in House special elections by 7 points, according to a 538 analysis, and in special elections overall by a similar margin.

At a moment when national polling looks middling at best for Democrats, a stronger-than-expected showing tonight could provide some much-needed comfort.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections