I'm an Idahoan, so this take might be wildly insular, but I think that Republicans in western states (like Colorado and Utah) are still able to put forward candidates that are conservative enough to ward off Trumpian (typically newcomer) candidates with anti-democratic tendencies, armed with conservative bona fides that still serve what Trumpian conservatism feeds, like anti-establishment, anti-authority authenticity. But it is of a frontier flavor that I think Trump and many Trumpy candidates don't have.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

It's not exactly breaking news that Trump has a strong hold over the GOP. But if you look at the three cases where his endorsees lost tonight, each pick had potential challenges, either because of their own weaknesses as candidates or strong candidates running against them. In South Carolina's 3rd District, Mark Burns had a controversial past that invited outside spending to help his opponent, and Burns also barely raised any money from donors, mostly self-funding his bid with loans. In Colorado's 5th District, Dave Williams had rubbed a lot of people the wrong way as state party chair, to the extent that outside groups spent more than $2.6 million against him or on behalf of his main primary opponent. And Trump doesn't have as firm a hold over GOP politics in Utah, indicative of how his endorsee, Trent Staggs, couldn't beat out the establishment choice in Rep. John Curtis, who had a stronger track record as an incumbent congressman and received a ton of outside support.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Trump made some ill-advised endorsements in today's races, and it feels to me like they were based more on his own personal taste rather than any kind of strategy. Williams in Colorado’s 5th District has been very outspoken, he’s an election denier, he’s made controversial, identity politics stands as the state GOP chair, and it could just be that Trump liked his MAGAness or the fact that he seized control of the state party in the way he did. I doubt his team would have chosen Williams as the endorsee, I suspect this was all Trump, and a similar scenario may have happened with Staggs and Burns.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Going into tonight, Trump had only endorsed one candidate for Senate, House or governor who lost. Tonight alone, he endorsed three. Why do you guys think Trump failed so badly tonight? Was it just bad luck, or something real?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Tonight, we'll be monitoring how candidates of color perform in primaries for Senate, House and governor. Overall, 19 people of color — 12 Democrats and seven Republicans — are running in these contests, all for the House.

Each state has a candidate of color running in at least one race, but New York, which also has the most contests overall, is home to 10 of these candidates, including former Rep. Mondaire Jones, who is running in the 17th Congressional District. He tried to switch districts in 2022 due to redistricting and lost the primary in the 10th District, but this year he is running unopposed and hoping to unseat Republican Rep. Mike Lawler.

In Colorado, Democratic incumbent Rep. Joe Neguse is running unopposed in the primary for the state's 2nd Congressional District. In the 3rd District, Stephen Varela, who sits on the state's Board of Education, is the only person of color among six candidates hoping to take on Democrat Adam Frisch for the seat left open by Boebert running in the 4th District this cycle. Asian American Peter Yu, a finance and mortgage consultant, is one of her five challengers in that district. In the 8th Congressional District, are vying to take on the incumbent Democrat, Rep. Yadira Caraveo, a seat Republicans hope to flip in what could be a close race.

Finally, there are currently only four Black Republicans in the House, but Burns could add to that number if he wins his runoff in South Carolina (he is slightly favored against Biggs). Meanwhile, one of those four incumbents, Rep. Burgess Owens, is unopposed in Utah's 4th District.

—Monica Potts, 538