New York, Colorado and Utah primaries 2024: Bowman loses, Boebert wins
Three Trump-endorsed candidates also lost in Republican primaries.
June 25 was one of the most jam-packed primary election days of the year: Democrats and Republicans in Colorado, New York, Utah and parts of South Carolina picked their party's nominees for this fall's elections.
Two incumbent representatives — Jamaal Bowman and Lauren Boebert — who have made enemies inside and outside their own parties faced serious challengers in their primaries, but they met with different fates. Bowman lost to a more moderate Democrat, George Latimer, in what was the most expensive congressional primary in history. However, Boebert easily prevailed in her Republican primary despite running in an entirely new district.
It was also a bad night for former President Donald Trump. Going into these primaries, only one candidate he had endorsed for Senate, House or governor had lost; tonight alone, three did, including his preferred candidate to replace retiring Sen. Mitt Romney in Utah.
In addition, the fields are now set in some key congressional matchups this fall. In Colorado, Republicans avoided nominating far-right candidates who could have put normally safe red districts in play. Meanwhile, Democrats picked their fighters in two competitive New York House districts that could help them reclaim the House majority.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
No Democratic overperformance in tonight's special election
As you mentioned earlier, Jacob, Trump won Colorado's 4th District by 19 points in 2020, so Lopez's 21-point win is pretty much exactly in line with the partisanship of the district. That's notable in a year when Democrats have made a lot of hay out of their overperformances in recent special elections, like in Ohio's 6th District a couple weeks ago. It's a good reminder that individual special election results can be noisy. That said, Democrats are still punching above their weight in special elections this year on average by about 6 points, and historically, overperformance in special elections has augured general-election success.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Lopez projected to win in Colorado's 4th
The AP projects that Greg Lopez will win the special election for Colorado's 4th District, which was vacated by Republican Ken Buck. The former Parker, Colorado, mayor leads Democrat Trisha Calvarese, 58 to 35 percent, with 80 percent of the expected vote counted.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Latimer continues to lead as more votes report in NY-16
The AP now estimates that 48 percent of the expected vote has reported in the Democratic primary for New York's 16th District, and Latimer holds a 10-point lead over Bowman, 55 percent to 45 percent. Latimer is winning 63 percent of the vote in Westchester County, which he leads as county executive, and which will cast the vast majority of votes in this seat. A projection may not be far away here.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
VIEW PAC candidate loses in Colorado
With Boebert's win, the VIEW PAC endorsed candidate, Flora, is out. As I mentioned earlier on the blog, this race was interesting to me because it pitted two GOP women's groups against each other. VIEW PAC endorsed Flora, while Maggie's List endorsed Boebert. VIEW PAC has a history of being anti-Freedom Caucus, so it wasn't surprising they didn't back Boebert, but it was somewhat surprising they endorsed in the race at all. Of course, as the saying goes, women (even within the same party) are not a monolith!
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Celebrate polling wins
We talk a lot about how effective or useful polling is these days, and Americans don't have a tremendous amount of trust in polling. According to a recent Marist poll, 61 percent of Americans said they trust polls "not very much" or "not at all."
So I think it's important to make note of when polls do a good job of depicting where a race stands. And Noble Predictive Insights's latest poll of Utah, which they fielded last week, was pretty spot on. They found Curtis leading the Senate primary field with 48 percent, followed by Staggs (28 percent), Wilson (9 percent) and Walton (6 percent). According to the AP, the current results are: Curtis 52 percent, Staggs 28 percent, Wilson 14 percent and Walton 6 percent, with 67 percent of the expected vote counted. That's pretty good. And in the gubernatorial race, Noble Predictive Insights found Cox ahead, 55 to 42 percent, over Lyman. He currently leads 59 to 41 percent, with 68 percent of the expected vote counted. Not bad for a primary poll!
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections