Perhaps Trump has been reading the 538 live blogs and didn’t like my comments about him padding his record when it comes to endorsing candidates guaranteed to win (uncontested, incumbents, etc), but the former president took a few gambles in tonight’s races on dark horse candidates. It … did not pay off. Of the 19 races tonight where Trump made an endorsement, 15 are projected to win, three are projected to lose, and one is leading (Celeste Maloy in Utah’s 2nd District, but it’s a close race). However … 12 of those wins were uncontested races, and among the uncontested races, two endorsed candidates were incumbents (including Rep. Lauren Boebert, who was running in a new district but is still a sitting representative).

When Trump actually rolled the dice tonight, like in endorsing Dave Williams in Colorado’s 5th District or Trent Staggs for the GOP Senate race in Utah, he came up short. Overall, 79 percent of Trump’s endorsees are projected to have won their races tonight, but when you consider only the contested races (even including incumbents), Trump is 50-50 on his endorsements, with one race pending. What was I saying about padding the record again?

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Philip Bump and Lenny Bronner over at The Washington Post dove into precinct results in New York’s 16th District and found something interesting: More heavily Jewish precincts voted pretty strongly for Latimer.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

We talk a lot about how effective or useful polling is these days, and Americans don't have a tremendous amount of trust in polling. According to a recent Marist poll, 61 percent of Americans said they trust polls "not very much" or "not at all."

So I think it's important to make note of when polls do a good job of depicting where a race stands. And Noble Predictive Insights's latest poll of Utah, which they fielded last week, was pretty spot on. They found Curtis leading the Senate primary field with 48 percent, followed by Staggs (28 percent), Wilson (9 percent) and Walton (6 percent). According to the AP, the current results are: Curtis 52 percent, Staggs 28 percent, Wilson 14 percent and Walton 6 percent, with 67 percent of the expected vote counted. That's pretty good. And in the gubernatorial race, Noble Predictive Insights found Cox ahead, 55 to 42 percent, over Lyman. He currently leads 59 to 41 percent, with 68 percent of the expected vote counted. Not bad for a primary poll!

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Cox may have been booed at the convention, Meredith, but Utah voters seem to feel OK about the state under his leadership. In a HarrisX/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted earlier this month, when asked whether the U.S. was on the right or wrong track, 77 percent of Utah voters said it was on the wrong track, compared with 14 percent who said it was on the right track. But when asked the same question about their own state, 48 percent said it was on the right track, and 36 percent said it was on the wrong track. That level of satisfaction is pretty rare these days, so despite some recent closer polling, I'm not surprised to see Cox running away with this race.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

In Tuesday's marquee race, Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman could lose renomination against Westchester County Executive George Latimer in New York's dark blue 16th District. This race is defined by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Gaza conflict, the influence of pro-Israel groups and controversies about Bowman's past behavior. Bowman has joined with fellow members of the progressive "Squad" and some other Democrats to criticize and oppose U.S. support for Israel, a position that made him a major target for pro-Israel groups.

Bowman lacks a strong electoral record, having won only 54 percent of the primary vote in his first reelection campaign in 2022. He also attracted scrutiny last September when he pulled a fire alarm in a Capitol Hill office building just before a high-profile vote to avoid a government shutdown, for which he was censured by the House and had to pay a fine. On top of this, old blog posts by Bowman came to light in January that included conspiracy theories about the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. All of this has helped boost the primary challenge from Latimer, who's also built up a strong local political reputation in Westchester County — where 9 in 10 of the district's voters live, according to Daily Kos Elections.

Still, the big story is Latimer's support from pro-Israel donors and organizations. Latimer has raised $5.8 million, $2.4 million of which came via individual donors who used the American Israel Public Affairs Committee as a conduit to contribute to his campaign. This has helped give him a financial leg up on Bowman, who has raised $4.3 million. And the monetary disparity grows far starker when we look at outside spending. Groups have spent a whopping $17.7 million either opposing Bowman or supporting Latimer, according to OpenSecrets, while they've spent only $3.0 million attacking Latimer or boosting Bowman. As a result, this has turned into the most expensive House primary on record, according to AdImpact.

The principal group behind the massive spending is United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, which has forked out $14.6 million on the race to take down Bowman. Despite the pro-Israel connection, the group's ads rarely mention the ongoing conflict, instead criticizing Bowman on issues such as not supporting President Joe Biden's position on a major infrastructure package in 2021 and a debt ceiling deal in 2023. Bowman and his allies haven't taken this lying down. In the last primary debate, Bowman attacked the "racist MAGA Republicans" — a reference to AIPAC's bipartisan sources of financial backing — supporting Latimer, a criticism leveled in ads put out by Bowman and outside groups backing him.

The most recent survey of the race — an Emerson College/The Hill/WPIX poll from early June — found Latimer ahead of Bowman 48 percent to 31 percent, which signals just how in danger Bowman is of becoming the first Democratic incumbent to lose renomination in 2024.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538