With an estimated 50 percent of the expected vote counted in the Utah Republican primary for governor, the AP projects that Cox, the incumbent, will win. He currently leads Lyman 60 percent to 40 percent. Cox was booed at this year's nominating convention, but the convention in Utah hasn't really had its finger on the pulse in recent cycles.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

With 62 percent of the vote estimated to have been counted in the GOP primary for Utah’s 2nd District, per the AP, Maloy has just a 52 percent to 48 percent lead over Jenkins. Maloy’s lead is built on strong performances in Salt Lake and Davis counties, in the Salt Lake City metro area, while Jenkins is doing well in Washington County, home to St. George in the state’s southwest corner. This race could come down to how some of the more rural counties in between vote.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

This wasn't a race that we expected to be close, but the AP projects that Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will easily win renomination in New York's solidly blue 14th District. I note the contest only because she faced a primary challenge from former insurance executive Marty Dolan, who originally ran against Bowman in the 16th District primary, but switched races to take on Ocasio-Cortez. Dolan mostly got attention from conservative media outlets — Ocasio-Cortez is their bête noire — but it turns out that, amazingly, appearances on Fox News aren't a good way to win a Democratic primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In Colorado, the state party organization is in a state of constant disarray, but they found the time to endorse a number of candidates in competitive GOP primaries tonight. Those candidates aren’t doing particularly well: in the 3rd District, former state Rep. Ron Hanks is losing handily to attorney Jeff Hurd; in the 5th District, state party chairman Dave Williams lost to radio host Jeff Crank, and in the 8th District, former state Rep. Janak Joshi lost in a landslide to state Rep. Gabe Evans.

While that’s a poor track record for the state party itself, it’s music to the ears of national Republicans who want to win House races. Hanks, Williams, and Joshi were poor fundraisers who had lots of baggage in their backgrounds and would have made holding onto even GOP-leaning seats more of a challenge. With all three losing tonight, national Republican groups can focus on the most competitive seat, the 8th District, and feel a lot better about the 3rd and 5th Districts.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

In Tuesday's marquee race, Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman could lose renomination against Westchester County Executive George Latimer in New York's dark blue 16th District. This race is defined by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Gaza conflict, the influence of pro-Israel groups and controversies about Bowman's past behavior. Bowman has joined with fellow members of the progressive "Squad" and some other Democrats to criticize and oppose U.S. support for Israel, a position that made him a major target for pro-Israel groups.

Bowman lacks a strong electoral record, having won only 54 percent of the primary vote in his first reelection campaign in 2022. He also attracted scrutiny last September when he pulled a fire alarm in a Capitol Hill office building just before a high-profile vote to avoid a government shutdown, for which he was censured by the House and had to pay a fine. On top of this, old blog posts by Bowman came to light in January that included conspiracy theories about the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. All of this has helped boost the primary challenge from Latimer, who's also built up a strong local political reputation in Westchester County — where 9 in 10 of the district's voters live, according to Daily Kos Elections.

Still, the big story is Latimer's support from pro-Israel donors and organizations. Latimer has raised $5.8 million, $2.4 million of which came via individual donors who used the American Israel Public Affairs Committee as a conduit to contribute to his campaign. This has helped give him a financial leg up on Bowman, who has raised $4.3 million. And the monetary disparity grows far starker when we look at outside spending. Groups have spent a whopping $17.7 million either opposing Bowman or supporting Latimer, according to OpenSecrets, while they've spent only $3.0 million attacking Latimer or boosting Bowman. As a result, this has turned into the most expensive House primary on record, according to AdImpact.

The principal group behind the massive spending is United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, which has forked out $14.6 million on the race to take down Bowman. Despite the pro-Israel connection, the group's ads rarely mention the ongoing conflict, instead criticizing Bowman on issues such as not supporting President Joe Biden's position on a major infrastructure package in 2021 and a debt ceiling deal in 2023. Bowman and his allies haven't taken this lying down. In the last primary debate, Bowman attacked the "racist MAGA Republicans" — a reference to AIPAC's bipartisan sources of financial backing — supporting Latimer, a criticism leveled in ads put out by Bowman and outside groups backing him.

The most recent survey of the race — an Emerson College/The Hill/WPIX poll from early June — found Latimer ahead of Bowman 48 percent to 31 percent, which signals just how in danger Bowman is of becoming the first Democratic incumbent to lose renomination in 2024.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538