OK, guys, there are going to be a lot of hot takes out there tonight and tomorrow about why Bowman lost. But this is a smart, data-driven crew. What do you all think was the primary reason?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

The AP projects that New York Rep. Claudia Tenney will win the Republican primary in New York's 24th District. We figured she was favored, but Tenney only defeated the same opponent, businessman Mario Fratto, by 14 points in the 2022 primary here, so we were keeping an eye on this one. However, with 36 percent of the expected vote reporting, Tenney leads 65 percent to 35 percent, per AP, so she looks set to survive and win reelection in this solidly red Upstate seat.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

The AP projects Jeff Crank, a conservative talk radio host, to win in Colorado's 5th District, surrounding Colorado Springs, winning over the state party's chair, Dave Williams. Despite being the party chair and getting Trump's endorsement, there was a lot of money and energy being spent to keep Williams — a controversial figure who has taken the state party on a hard right tack — from being the nominee. The Koch brothers' PAC has spent over $100,000 supporting Crank, while a super PAC of Republican megadonors has spent $1.2 million opposing Williams. Along with his talk radio gig, Crank has a background in politics, having previously worked as a regional vice president for Americans for Prosperity and as a staffer for former Rep. Joel Hefley. Though this district has shown signs of shifting to be less red in recent years, it's also the only district in the state to have never sent a Democrat to Congress, so Crank has some good odds heading into November.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

While Democrats see New York as central to their path back to the House majority, the 1st District is often the red-headed step-child of the half-dozen competitive Empire State seats. National Democratic strategists are far more excited about the prospect of beating Republican incumbents in the 4th District (Anthony D’Esposito), 17th District (Mike Lawler), 19th District (Marc Molinaro) and 22nd District (Brandon Williams) than they are about taking on LaLota.

Long Island has been very difficult for Democrats not named Tom Suozzi over the past three years, and the 1st was even redrawn to be one Biden would have carried narrowly in 2020 to one Trump would have carried narrowly. Avlon will need to leverage his national network to get his contest more attention and funding, especially given how expensive it is to air TV ads in the New York media market.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

In Tuesday's marquee race, Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman could lose renomination against Westchester County Executive George Latimer in New York's dark blue 16th District. This race is defined by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Gaza conflict, the influence of pro-Israel groups and controversies about Bowman's past behavior. Bowman has joined with fellow members of the progressive "Squad" and some other Democrats to criticize and oppose U.S. support for Israel, a position that made him a major target for pro-Israel groups.

Bowman lacks a strong electoral record, having won only 54 percent of the primary vote in his first reelection campaign in 2022. He also attracted scrutiny last September when he pulled a fire alarm in a Capitol Hill office building just before a high-profile vote to avoid a government shutdown, for which he was censured by the House and had to pay a fine. On top of this, old blog posts by Bowman came to light in January that included conspiracy theories about the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. All of this has helped boost the primary challenge from Latimer, who's also built up a strong local political reputation in Westchester County — where 9 in 10 of the district's voters live, according to Daily Kos Elections.

Still, the big story is Latimer's support from pro-Israel donors and organizations. Latimer has raised $5.8 million, $2.4 million of which came via individual donors who used the American Israel Public Affairs Committee as a conduit to contribute to his campaign. This has helped give him a financial leg up on Bowman, who has raised $4.3 million. And the monetary disparity grows far starker when we look at outside spending. Groups have spent a whopping $17.7 million either opposing Bowman or supporting Latimer, according to OpenSecrets, while they've spent only $3.0 million attacking Latimer or boosting Bowman. As a result, this has turned into the most expensive House primary on record, according to AdImpact.

The principal group behind the massive spending is United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, which has forked out $14.6 million on the race to take down Bowman. Despite the pro-Israel connection, the group's ads rarely mention the ongoing conflict, instead criticizing Bowman on issues such as not supporting President Joe Biden's position on a major infrastructure package in 2021 and a debt ceiling deal in 2023. Bowman and his allies haven't taken this lying down. In the last primary debate, Bowman attacked the "racist MAGA Republicans" — a reference to AIPAC's bipartisan sources of financial backing — supporting Latimer, a criticism leveled in ads put out by Bowman and outside groups backing him.

The most recent survey of the race — an Emerson College/The Hill/WPIX poll from early June — found Latimer ahead of Bowman 48 percent to 31 percent, which signals just how in danger Bowman is of becoming the first Democratic incumbent to lose renomination in 2024.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538