The AP projects that former CNN anchor John Avlon will win the Democratic nomination in New York's 1st District. He's leading 2020 nominee and chemistry professor Nancy Goroff, 70 to 30 percent, with 80 percent of the expected vote reporting. Avlon faces an uphill battle against GOP Rep. Nick LaLota this fall, as Long Island has gotten to be very fraught territory for Democrats.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

With Biggs projected to win her South Carolina runoff, she's the first winning candidate (in a contested race) in our anti-abortion tracker. In an interview with The State newspaper, she said, "I am firmly against abortion except in the rarest and most extreme circumstances when the life of the mother is in immediate and severe danger and all other medical options have been exhausted." She said she otherwise does not support abortion at any stage of pregnancy. South Carolina does not allow abortion after six weeks, but such strict views are unpopular even in the state. A Winthrop University poll from May found that nearly half, 48 percent, of adults in the state opposed the ban, while 31 percent supported it.

Boebert has also won her primary contest in Colorado's 4th District, a deep red district where both her challengers were also on this list.

—Monica Potts, 538

The AP has projected that Westchester County Executive George Latimer will defeat Rep. Jamaal Bowman in the Democratic primary for New York's 16th District. With 60 percent of the expected vote reporting, Latimer leads about 55 percent to 45 percent. While Bowman has performed extremely well in the small part of the district located in the Bronx, most of the seat is in Westchester, which Latimer is carrying handily. This race was defined largely by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Hamas conflict and the influence of pro-Israel groups, although controversies about Bowman's past behavior certainly made him more vulnerable. Most notably, though, United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with the pro-Israel group AIPAC, spent $14.8 million to take down Bowman, who like many in the progressive "Squad" has been sharply critical of Israel's military operations in Gaza (although he also condemned Hamas, too).

Bowman becomes the first Democratic incumbent to lose renomination this cycle and probably the third to lose a primary overall. Republican Rep. Jerry Carl of Alabama lost renomination in an incumbent-versus-incumbent race brought about by redistricting in March, while Republican Rep. Bob Good appears likely to lose his primary in Virginia, although the June 18 primary result was close and Good intends to pay for a recount.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

There's a reason why we average! The Ohio race was super sleepy. This Colorado race was taking place at the same time as a high-profile Republican primary election in the same district. Best not to read anything too much into any individual result.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

In Tuesday's marquee race, Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman could lose renomination against Westchester County Executive George Latimer in New York's dark blue 16th District. This race is defined by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Gaza conflict, the influence of pro-Israel groups and controversies about Bowman's past behavior. Bowman has joined with fellow members of the progressive "Squad" and some other Democrats to criticize and oppose U.S. support for Israel, a position that made him a major target for pro-Israel groups.

Bowman lacks a strong electoral record, having won only 54 percent of the primary vote in his first reelection campaign in 2022. He also attracted scrutiny last September when he pulled a fire alarm in a Capitol Hill office building just before a high-profile vote to avoid a government shutdown, for which he was censured by the House and had to pay a fine. On top of this, old blog posts by Bowman came to light in January that included conspiracy theories about the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. All of this has helped boost the primary challenge from Latimer, who's also built up a strong local political reputation in Westchester County — where 9 in 10 of the district's voters live, according to Daily Kos Elections.

Still, the big story is Latimer's support from pro-Israel donors and organizations. Latimer has raised $5.8 million, $2.4 million of which came via individual donors who used the American Israel Public Affairs Committee as a conduit to contribute to his campaign. This has helped give him a financial leg up on Bowman, who has raised $4.3 million. And the monetary disparity grows far starker when we look at outside spending. Groups have spent a whopping $17.7 million either opposing Bowman or supporting Latimer, according to OpenSecrets, while they've spent only $3.0 million attacking Latimer or boosting Bowman. As a result, this has turned into the most expensive House primary on record, according to AdImpact.

The principal group behind the massive spending is United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, which has forked out $14.6 million on the race to take down Bowman. Despite the pro-Israel connection, the group's ads rarely mention the ongoing conflict, instead criticizing Bowman on issues such as not supporting President Joe Biden's position on a major infrastructure package in 2021 and a debt ceiling deal in 2023. Bowman and his allies haven't taken this lying down. In the last primary debate, Bowman attacked the "racist MAGA Republicans" — a reference to AIPAC's bipartisan sources of financial backing — supporting Latimer, a criticism leveled in ads put out by Bowman and outside groups backing him.

The most recent survey of the race — an Emerson College/The Hill/WPIX poll from early June — found Latimer ahead of Bowman 48 percent to 31 percent, which signals just how in danger Bowman is of becoming the first Democratic incumbent to lose renomination in 2024.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538