Greg Lopez, the Republican nominee in the special election in Colorado’s 4th District (to fill Rep. Buck's vacant seat), is well ahead with about two-thirds of the vote counted so far. According to the AP, he leads Democrat Trisha Calvarese, 55-38 percent. That 17-point margin is roughly in line with how the district voted in the last presidential election (for Trump by 19 points).

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Perhaps uniquely among states that have held their primaries so far, Colorado voters are particularly concerned with on housing, according to a March poll from New Bridge Strategy/Aspect Strategic/The Colorado Polling Institute. Asked in an open-ended question to name the most important issue for the state government to address, 23 percent of likely voters in the state named homelessness, housing affordability or lack of housing — more than any other issue area. Twenty-one percent named issues related to the economy, including taxes, the cost of living, jobs and inflation. Fourteen percent named issues related to immigration. No other issues were named by more than 6 percent of respondents.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

The AP projects that Biggs has defeated Burns in the GOP runoff in South Carolina's 3rd District. With more than 95 percent of the expected vote reporting, she leads 51.1 percent to 48.9 percent — what looks to be a narrow win. This is a somewhat surprising result: Trump had endorsed Burns, who led in the initial primary vote on June 11 and even had an endorsement from the third-place finisher.

But Biggs may have triumphed thanks to more than $500,000 in outside help from two conservative super PACs that have been spending against more anti-establishment candidates in GOP primaries like Burns. Per FEC data, Conservatives for American Excellence and America Leads Action spent mostly against Burns but also made some outlays to support Biggs.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

With 24 percent of the expected vote in, Mannion is leading Hood in the Democratic primary in the 22nd Congressional District, 60 percent to 40 percent, according to the AP. Hood had hoped to position herself to Mannion's left on issues like abortion and has a fundraising advantage, as Geoffrey wrote earlier. But Mannion, a state Senator, is a well-known entity in much of the district.

—Monica Potts, 538

In Tuesday's marquee race, Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman could lose renomination against Westchester County Executive George Latimer in New York's dark blue 16th District. This race is defined by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Gaza conflict, the influence of pro-Israel groups and controversies about Bowman's past behavior. Bowman has joined with fellow members of the progressive "Squad" and some other Democrats to criticize and oppose U.S. support for Israel, a position that made him a major target for pro-Israel groups.

Bowman lacks a strong electoral record, having won only 54 percent of the primary vote in his first reelection campaign in 2022. He also attracted scrutiny last September when he pulled a fire alarm in a Capitol Hill office building just before a high-profile vote to avoid a government shutdown, for which he was censured by the House and had to pay a fine. On top of this, old blog posts by Bowman came to light in January that included conspiracy theories about the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. All of this has helped boost the primary challenge from Latimer, who's also built up a strong local political reputation in Westchester County — where 9 in 10 of the district's voters live, according to Daily Kos Elections.

Still, the big story is Latimer's support from pro-Israel donors and organizations. Latimer has raised $5.8 million, $2.4 million of which came via individual donors who used the American Israel Public Affairs Committee as a conduit to contribute to his campaign. This has helped give him a financial leg up on Bowman, who has raised $4.3 million. And the monetary disparity grows far starker when we look at outside spending. Groups have spent a whopping $17.7 million either opposing Bowman or supporting Latimer, according to OpenSecrets, while they've spent only $3.0 million attacking Latimer or boosting Bowman. As a result, this has turned into the most expensive House primary on record, according to AdImpact.

The principal group behind the massive spending is United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, which has forked out $14.6 million on the race to take down Bowman. Despite the pro-Israel connection, the group's ads rarely mention the ongoing conflict, instead criticizing Bowman on issues such as not supporting President Joe Biden's position on a major infrastructure package in 2021 and a debt ceiling deal in 2023. Bowman and his allies haven't taken this lying down. In the last primary debate, Bowman attacked the "racist MAGA Republicans" — a reference to AIPAC's bipartisan sources of financial backing — supporting Latimer, a criticism leveled in ads put out by Bowman and outside groups backing him.

The most recent survey of the race — an Emerson College/The Hill/WPIX poll from early June — found Latimer ahead of Bowman 48 percent to 31 percent, which signals just how in danger Bowman is of becoming the first Democratic incumbent to lose renomination in 2024.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538