Amid the many primaries taking place tonight, voters in Colorado's 4th District are also choosing their next member of Congress. Buck, frustrated with his own party, resigned from the House early, triggering a special election to fill out the remainder of his term.

Though Boebert is running for a full term in this district, she isn't running in the special. Instead, Republicans nominated Greg Lopez, the former mayor of Parker, Colorado, and a 2022 candidate for governor. Lopez faces Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a speechwriter, in what should be an uncompetitive special election tonight.

But there's at least an outside possibility the race could surprise us. Democrats recently overperformed in another House special election, in Ohio's 6th District, that was thought to be a walkover for the GOP. That seat, vacated by Republican Bill Johnson, had voted for Trump by 29 percentage points in 2020, but the GOP nominee won by 9 points, an overperformance of 20 percent. Colorado's 4th District voted for Trump by 19 points in 2020, so a similar overperformance would result in a very tight race.

However, there are plenty of reasons why that may not be the case. Unlike in Ohio, where the special election was the only race happening in the state and turnout was in the basement, the Colorado special election is concurrent with a statewide primary race that will boost turnout. And in the 4th District specifically, a contentious primary featuring Boebert and a bunch of other candidates will probably boost Republican turnout specifically.

But it wouldn't take a Calvarese win to be good news for Democrats. Historically, special election results have some predictive power, and Democrats have been putting together a healthy record so far ahead of the 2024 elections. Since the beginning of 2023, Democrats have overperformed partisanship in House special elections by 7 points, according to a 538 analysis, and in special elections overall by a similar margin.

At a moment when national polling looks middling at best for Democrats, a stronger-than-expected showing tonight could provide some much-needed comfort.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

After coming within 600 votes of losing her seat in the 2022 midterm election and enduring an awful year in her personal life, Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert has ditched her district to attempt to win over Republican voters on the other side of the state, in the 4th District. This seat, which was previously held by Republican Rep. Ken Buck — who resigned earlier this year after announcing his retirement last year — is more reliably red, having gone for Trump by a margin of 19 percentage points in 2020 (compared to an 8-point margin in the 3rd). So if Boebert can secure the GOP nomination, she'll all but guarantee herself a spot in the next Congress.

Standing in her way are some primary candidates with more local cachet, such as former state Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg and Deborah Flora, a former Miss Colorado and local talk radio host. However, Boebert has a major fundraising advantage (she's raised $3.7 million, compared to the next-highest raiser, Flora, who's raised less than half a million), as well as Trump's endorsement, and the sole poll we have for this race shows her up 35 percentage points. So she's definitely got a solid shot at the primary in her new district.

In addition to the race to fill this seat in the 119th Congress, there is a separate special election to see out Buck's term. Republicans are favored to win that race.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

With Boebert out of the picture on the Western Slope, the GOP primary for Colorado's 3rd District has been heating up. A whopping 11 candidates originally filed to run for the GOP nomination in this district, but only five serious contenders are on the primary ballot: attorney Jeff Hurd, former state Rep. Ron Hanks, retired businessman Lew Webb, Colorado Board of Education member Stephen Varela and businessman Russ Andrews.

Hurd has a clear fundraising advantage here, with over $1 million in his war chest, compared to the next-highest fundraiser on the ballot, Andrews, who brought in $423,000. Hurd's haul includes cash infusions from the Koch brothers and other conservative PACs like the Mainstreet Partnership, and the national cattlemen's and automobile dealer's associations. But Hanks, a more MAGA-aligned candidate who ran for Senate in 2022, is getting some outside support as well … from Democrats. As they did in 2022, Democratic groups have been airing pro-Hanks ads, presumably betting that a candidate like Hanks — an election denier who once dubbed himself a "pro-Trump warrior" — would be a weaker general election candidate. Still, it seems like Hurd has the edge: A June poll showed him with an 18-point lead. Whoever wins will most likely face off this fall against presumed Democratic nominee Adam Frisch, the business owner who nearly unseated Boebert in 2022.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Today's primaries are just the opening salvo in what is slated to be a very busy week in politics. The first presidential debate of 2024 is this Thursday, and we're also waiting on a number of high-profile rulings from the Supreme Court, which are expected to come down during the latter half of the week.

On Monday's installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we trained our gaze on the debate. It's the earliest presidential debate in history, will exclude the Commission on Presidential Debates for the first time since the '80s and features the first contest between a president and former president in over a century. Given all that is unique about Thursday's debate, we asked whether historical lessons from past presidential debates apply and how much we might expect the debate to shift voters' views.

We also dissected some questionable uses of polling and previewed a couple of the high-profile primary races in New York and Colorado tonight. If you're looking for something to do while you wait for results to come in this evening, give it a listen!

—Galen Druke, 538

In Tuesday's marquee race, Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman could lose renomination against Westchester County Executive George Latimer in New York's dark blue 16th District. This race is defined by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Gaza conflict, the influence of pro-Israel groups and controversies about Bowman's past behavior. Bowman has joined with fellow members of the progressive "Squad" and some other Democrats to criticize and oppose U.S. support for Israel, a position that made him a major target for pro-Israel groups.

Bowman lacks a strong electoral record, having won only 54 percent of the primary vote in his first reelection campaign in 2022. He also attracted scrutiny last September when he pulled a fire alarm in a Capitol Hill office building just before a high-profile vote to avoid a government shutdown, for which he was censured by the House and had to pay a fine. On top of this, old blog posts by Bowman came to light in January that included conspiracy theories about the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. All of this has helped boost the primary challenge from Latimer, who's also built up a strong local political reputation in Westchester County — where 9 in 10 of the district's voters live, according to Daily Kos Elections.

Still, the big story is Latimer's support from pro-Israel donors and organizations. Latimer has raised $5.8 million, $2.4 million of which came via individual donors who used the American Israel Public Affairs Committee as a conduit to contribute to his campaign. This has helped give him a financial leg up on Bowman, who has raised $4.3 million. And the monetary disparity grows far starker when we look at outside spending. Groups have spent a whopping $17.7 million either opposing Bowman or supporting Latimer, according to OpenSecrets, while they've spent only $3.0 million attacking Latimer or boosting Bowman. As a result, this has turned into the most expensive House primary on record, according to AdImpact.

The principal group behind the massive spending is United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, which has forked out $14.6 million on the race to take down Bowman. Despite the pro-Israel connection, the group's ads rarely mention the ongoing conflict, instead criticizing Bowman on issues such as not supporting President Joe Biden's position on a major infrastructure package in 2021 and a debt ceiling deal in 2023. Bowman and his allies haven't taken this lying down. In the last primary debate, Bowman attacked the "racist MAGA Republicans" — a reference to AIPAC's bipartisan sources of financial backing — supporting Latimer, a criticism leveled in ads put out by Bowman and outside groups backing him.

The most recent survey of the race — an Emerson College/The Hill/WPIX poll from early June — found Latimer ahead of Bowman 48 percent to 31 percent, which signals just how in danger Bowman is of becoming the first Democratic incumbent to lose renomination in 2024.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538