OK, guys, there are going to be a lot of hot takes out there tonight and tomorrow about why Bowman lost. But this is a smart, data-driven crew. What do you all think was the primary reason?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

The AP projects that New York Rep. Claudia Tenney will win the Republican primary in New York's 24th District. We figured she was favored, but Tenney only defeated the same opponent, businessman Mario Fratto, by 14 points in the 2022 primary here, so we were keeping an eye on this one. However, with 36 percent of the expected vote reporting, Tenney leads 65 percent to 35 percent, per AP, so she looks set to survive and win reelection in this solidly red Upstate seat.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

The AP projects Jeff Crank, a conservative talk radio host, to win in Colorado's 5th District, surrounding Colorado Springs, winning over the state party's chair, Dave Williams. Despite being the party chair and getting Trump's endorsement, there was a lot of money and energy being spent to keep Williams — a controversial figure who has taken the state party on a hard right tack — from being the nominee. The Koch brothers' PAC has spent over $100,000 supporting Crank, while a super PAC of Republican megadonors has spent $1.2 million opposing Williams. Along with his talk radio gig, Crank has a background in politics, having previously worked as a regional vice president for Americans for Prosperity and as a staffer for former Rep. Joel Hefley. Though this district has shown signs of shifting to be less red in recent years, it's also the only district in the state to have never sent a Democrat to Congress, so Crank has some good odds heading into November.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

While Democrats see New York as central to their path back to the House majority, the 1st District is often the red-headed step-child of the half-dozen competitive Empire State seats. National Democratic strategists are far more excited about the prospect of beating Republican incumbents in the 4th District (Anthony D’Esposito), 17th District (Mike Lawler), 19th District (Marc Molinaro) and 22nd District (Brandon Williams) than they are about taking on LaLota.

Long Island has been very difficult for Democrats not named Tom Suozzi over the past three years, and the 1st was even redrawn to be one Biden would have carried narrowly in 2020 to one Trump would have carried narrowly. Avlon will need to leverage his national network to get his contest more attention and funding, especially given how expensive it is to air TV ads in the New York media market.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

After coming within 600 votes of losing her seat in the 2022 midterm election and enduring an awful year in her personal life, Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert has ditched her district to attempt to win over Republican voters on the other side of the state, in the 4th District. This seat, which was previously held by Republican Rep. Ken Buck — who resigned earlier this year after announcing his retirement last year — is more reliably red, having gone for Trump by a margin of 19 percentage points in 2020 (compared to an 8-point margin in the 3rd). So if Boebert can secure the GOP nomination, she'll all but guarantee herself a spot in the next Congress.

Standing in her way are some primary candidates with more local cachet, such as former state Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg and Deborah Flora, a former Miss Colorado and local talk radio host. However, Boebert has a major fundraising advantage (she's raised $3.7 million, compared to the next-highest raiser, Flora, who's raised less than half a million), as well as Trump's endorsement, and the sole poll we have for this race shows her up 35 percentage points. So she's definitely got a solid shot at the primary in her new district.

In addition to the race to fill this seat in the 119th Congress, there is a separate special election to see out Buck's term. Republicans are favored to win that race.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538