With Boebert out of the picture on the Western Slope, the GOP primary for Colorado's 3rd District has been heating up. A whopping 11 candidates originally filed to run for the GOP nomination in this district, but only five serious contenders are on the primary ballot: attorney Jeff Hurd, former state Rep. Ron Hanks, retired businessman Lew Webb, Colorado Board of Education member Stephen Varela and businessman Russ Andrews.

Hurd has a clear fundraising advantage here, with over $1 million in his war chest, compared to the next-highest fundraiser on the ballot, Andrews, who brought in $423,000. Hurd's haul includes cash infusions from the Koch brothers and other conservative PACs like the Mainstreet Partnership, and the national cattlemen's and automobile dealer's associations. But Hanks, a more MAGA-aligned candidate who ran for Senate in 2022, is getting some outside support as well … from Democrats. As they did in 2022, Democratic groups have been airing pro-Hanks ads, presumably betting that a candidate like Hanks — an election denier who once dubbed himself a "pro-Trump warrior" — would be a weaker general election candidate. Still, it seems like Hurd has the edge: A June poll showed him with an 18-point lead. Whoever wins will most likely face off this fall against presumed Democratic nominee Adam Frisch, the business owner who nearly unseated Boebert in 2022.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Today's primaries are just the opening salvo in what is slated to be a very busy week in politics. The first presidential debate of 2024 is this Thursday, and we're also waiting on a number of high-profile rulings from the Supreme Court, which are expected to come down during the latter half of the week.

On Monday's installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we trained our gaze on the debate. It's the earliest presidential debate in history, will exclude the Commission on Presidential Debates for the first time since the '80s and features the first contest between a president and former president in over a century. Given all that is unique about Thursday's debate, we asked whether historical lessons from past presidential debates apply and how much we might expect the debate to shift voters' views.

We also dissected some questionable uses of polling and previewed a couple of the high-profile primary races in New York and Colorado tonight. If you're looking for something to do while you wait for results to come in this evening, give it a listen!

—Galen Druke, 538

Palmetto State primary voters went to the polls on June 11, but one notable race went to a runoff: the GOP nomination contest in the open and solidly red 3rd District. In the first round of voting, pastor Mark Burns ran slightly ahead of Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs, 33 percent to 29 percent. And Burns is probably favored on Tuesday thanks to his endorsement from former President Donald Trump, which Burns has highlighted in ads ahead of the runoff. He also received an endorsement from state Rep. Stewart Jones, who finished third in the primary with 19 percent. Moreover, Burns had $111,000 in the bank versus Biggs's $43,000 as of June 5, and Burns further improved his financial standing with a $250,000 loan on June 7. That brought his total campaign loans this cycle to $750,000, for which The Post and Courier found Burns had received extremely favorable terms that could run counter to campaign finance laws.

Still, Biggs can't be counted out due to outside spending. Conservatives for American Excellence and America Leads Actions, two super PACs that have opposed more anti-establishment candidates this cycle, have spent $510,000 to oppose Burns or boost Biggs during the runoff campaign, while Burns has received just $59,000 in outside support. This opposition to Burns may connect to his controversial past: A high-profile Trump surrogate in 2016, he retweeted a fake photo of Hillary Clinton in blackface, and in 2022 he called for the execution and arrest of those who support transgender and other LGBTQ children. In a June 18 debate, Burns also faced questions about 2016-era revelations that his church website biography falsely claimed that he'd obtained a bachelor's degree and had served in the Army Reserve.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Good evening, and welcome to another election night with 538! Today, voters cast their ballots in downballot primaries in Colorado, New York, South Carolina and Utah. And with so many of those states and districts being uncompetitive in November, that means today's results will decide the next members of Congress from many of those places. In fact, as my colleagues will tell you shortly, we're expecting at least one sitting member of Congress to lose reelection tonight.

We should start seeing results shortly: Polls just closed (at 7 p.m. Eastern) in South Carolina, while it will be pencils down in Colorado and New York at 9 p.m. Eastern. Finally, we will start getting results in Utah shortly after 10 p.m. Eastern. We hope you'll stick with us throughout the evening; this is the last regularly scheduled primary until late July, so enjoy the election-night rush while you can!

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Perhaps Trump has been reading the 538 live blogs and didn’t like my comments about him padding his record when it comes to endorsing candidates guaranteed to win (uncontested, incumbents, etc), but the former president took a few gambles in tonight’s races on dark horse candidates. It … did not pay off. Of the 19 races tonight where Trump made an endorsement, 15 are projected to win, three are projected to lose, and one is leading (Celeste Maloy in Utah’s 2nd District, but it’s a close race). However … 12 of those wins were uncontested races, and among the uncontested races, two endorsed candidates were incumbents (including Rep. Lauren Boebert, who was running in a new district but is still a sitting representative).

When Trump actually rolled the dice tonight, like in endorsing Dave Williams in Colorado’s 5th District or Trent Staggs for the GOP Senate race in Utah, he came up short. Overall, 79 percent of Trump’s endorsees are projected to have won their races tonight, but when you consider only the contested races (even including incumbents), Trump is 50-50 on his endorsements, with one race pending. What was I saying about padding the record again?

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538