I'm an Idahoan, so this take might be wildly insular, but I think that Republicans in western states (like Colorado and Utah) are still able to put forward candidates that are conservative enough to ward off Trumpian (typically newcomer) candidates with anti-democratic tendencies, armed with conservative bona fides that still serve what Trumpian conservatism feeds, like anti-establishment, anti-authority authenticity. But it is of a frontier flavor that I think Trump and many Trumpy candidates don't have.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

It's not exactly breaking news that Trump has a strong hold over the GOP. But if you look at the three cases where his endorsees lost tonight, each pick had potential challenges, either because of their own weaknesses as candidates or strong candidates running against them. In South Carolina's 3rd District, Mark Burns had a controversial past that invited outside spending to help his opponent, and Burns also barely raised any money from donors, mostly self-funding his bid with loans. In Colorado's 5th District, Dave Williams had rubbed a lot of people the wrong way as state party chair, to the extent that outside groups spent more than $2.6 million against him or on behalf of his main primary opponent. And Trump doesn't have as firm a hold over GOP politics in Utah, indicative of how his endorsee, Trent Staggs, couldn't beat out the establishment choice in Rep. John Curtis, who had a stronger track record as an incumbent congressman and received a ton of outside support.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Trump made some ill-advised endorsements in today's races, and it feels to me like they were based more on his own personal taste rather than any kind of strategy. Williams in Colorado’s 5th District has been very outspoken, he’s an election denier, he’s made controversial, identity politics stands as the state GOP chair, and it could just be that Trump liked his MAGAness or the fact that he seized control of the state party in the way he did. I doubt his team would have chosen Williams as the endorsee, I suspect this was all Trump, and a similar scenario may have happened with Staggs and Burns.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Going into tonight, Trump had only endorsed one candidate for Senate, House or governor who lost. Tonight alone, he endorsed three. Why do you guys think Trump failed so badly tonight? Was it just bad luck, or something real?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

As usual, tonight we'll be tracking candidates in Colorado's, New York's and Utah's primaries, along with one runoff in South Carolina, whose campaign websites use the phrase "pro-life," "sanctity of life," "right to life," "protect life," "no abortion," "against abortion" or "unborn" and do not say abortion is an issue of states' rights.

In South Carolina, abortion is banned after six weeks. In the 3rd District runoff there, Biggs describes herself as anti-abortion and has promised to "defend the sanctity of life" if elected. She has also been endorsed by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.

Abortion is banned in Utah after 18 weeks. All four Republican Senate candidates and at least one Republican House candidate in each of the state's four congressional districts are on our list, including 4th District Rep. Burgess Owens, who is running unopposed. Republican Gov. Spencer Cox is also anti-abortion, but he is nevertheless facing a challenge from the right by state Rep. Phil Lyman, who argues the governor is too moderate overall. Whoever wins the primary is likely to succeed in November against the Democratic challenger, state Rep. Brian King.

By contrast, New York law protects abortion rights, and voters may have a chance to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution if a proposed Equal Rights Amendment makes it onto the November ballot. Three Republican candidates in New York state are on our list. In the Republican-leaning 23rd and 24th districts, Rep. Nicholas Langworthy is running unopposed, and Mario Fratto, who lost to Rep. Claudia Tenney in 2022, is challenging the incumbent from the right again. But the Republican incumbent in the 22nd district, Rep. Brandon Williams, is more vulnerable, as redistricting left the district slightly bluer. Indeed, while New York Democrats plan to campaign on abortion rights to drive voters to the polls in November, Republicans in the state have been downplaying the issue.

—Monica Potts, 538