OK, guys, there are going to be a lot of hot takes out there tonight and tomorrow about why Bowman lost. But this is a smart, data-driven crew. What do you all think was the primary reason?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

The AP projects that New York Rep. Claudia Tenney will win the Republican primary in New York's 24th District. We figured she was favored, but Tenney only defeated the same opponent, businessman Mario Fratto, by 14 points in the 2022 primary here, so we were keeping an eye on this one. However, with 36 percent of the expected vote reporting, Tenney leads 65 percent to 35 percent, per AP, so she looks set to survive and win reelection in this solidly red Upstate seat.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

The AP projects Jeff Crank, a conservative talk radio host, to win in Colorado's 5th District, surrounding Colorado Springs, winning over the state party's chair, Dave Williams. Despite being the party chair and getting Trump's endorsement, there was a lot of money and energy being spent to keep Williams — a controversial figure who has taken the state party on a hard right tack — from being the nominee. The Koch brothers' PAC has spent over $100,000 supporting Crank, while a super PAC of Republican megadonors has spent $1.2 million opposing Williams. Along with his talk radio gig, Crank has a background in politics, having previously worked as a regional vice president for Americans for Prosperity and as a staffer for former Rep. Joel Hefley. Though this district has shown signs of shifting to be less red in recent years, it's also the only district in the state to have never sent a Democrat to Congress, so Crank has some good odds heading into November.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

While Democrats see New York as central to their path back to the House majority, the 1st District is often the red-headed step-child of the half-dozen competitive Empire State seats. National Democratic strategists are far more excited about the prospect of beating Republican incumbents in the 4th District (Anthony D’Esposito), 17th District (Mike Lawler), 19th District (Marc Molinaro) and 22nd District (Brandon Williams) than they are about taking on LaLota.

Long Island has been very difficult for Democrats not named Tom Suozzi over the past three years, and the 1st was even redrawn to be one Biden would have carried narrowly in 2020 to one Trump would have carried narrowly. Avlon will need to leverage his national network to get his contest more attention and funding, especially given how expensive it is to air TV ads in the New York media market.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

As usual, tonight we'll be tracking candidates in Colorado's, New York's and Utah's primaries, along with one runoff in South Carolina, whose campaign websites use the phrase "pro-life," "sanctity of life," "right to life," "protect life," "no abortion," "against abortion" or "unborn" and do not say abortion is an issue of states' rights.

In South Carolina, abortion is banned after six weeks. In the 3rd District runoff there, Biggs describes herself as anti-abortion and has promised to "defend the sanctity of life" if elected. She has also been endorsed by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.

Abortion is banned in Utah after 18 weeks. All four Republican Senate candidates and at least one Republican House candidate in each of the state's four congressional districts are on our list, including 4th District Rep. Burgess Owens, who is running unopposed. Republican Gov. Spencer Cox is also anti-abortion, but he is nevertheless facing a challenge from the right by state Rep. Phil Lyman, who argues the governor is too moderate overall. Whoever wins the primary is likely to succeed in November against the Democratic challenger, state Rep. Brian King.

By contrast, New York law protects abortion rights, and voters may have a chance to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution if a proposed Equal Rights Amendment makes it onto the November ballot. Three Republican candidates in New York state are on our list. In the Republican-leaning 23rd and 24th districts, Rep. Nicholas Langworthy is running unopposed, and Mario Fratto, who lost to Rep. Claudia Tenney in 2022, is challenging the incumbent from the right again. But the Republican incumbent in the 22nd district, Rep. Brandon Williams, is more vulnerable, as redistricting left the district slightly bluer. Indeed, while New York Democrats plan to campaign on abortion rights to drive voters to the polls in November, Republicans in the state have been downplaying the issue.

—Monica Potts, 538