The AP has projected that Westchester County Executive George Latimer will defeat Rep. Jamaal Bowman in the Democratic primary for New York's 16th District. With 60 percent of the expected vote reporting, Latimer leads about 55 percent to 45 percent. While Bowman has performed extremely well in the small part of the district located in the Bronx, most of the seat is in Westchester, which Latimer is carrying handily. This race was defined largely by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Hamas conflict and the influence of pro-Israel groups, although controversies about Bowman's past behavior certainly made him more vulnerable. Most notably, though, United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with the pro-Israel group AIPAC, spent $14.8 million to take down Bowman, who like many in the progressive "Squad" has been sharply critical of Israel's military operations in Gaza (although he also condemned Hamas, too).

Bowman becomes the first Democratic incumbent to lose renomination this cycle and probably the third to lose a primary overall. Republican Rep. Jerry Carl of Alabama lost renomination in an incumbent-versus-incumbent race brought about by redistricting in March, while Republican Rep. Bob Good appears likely to lose his primary in Virginia, although the June 18 primary result was close and Good intends to pay for a recount.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

There's a reason why we average! The Ohio race was super sleepy. This Colorado race was taking place at the same time as a high-profile Republican primary election in the same district. Best not to read anything too much into any individual result.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

As you mentioned earlier, Jacob, Trump won Colorado's 4th District by 19 points in 2020, so Lopez's 21-point win is pretty much exactly in line with the partisanship of the district. That's notable in a year when Democrats have made a lot of hay out of their overperformances in recent special elections, like in Ohio's 6th District a couple weeks ago. It's a good reminder that individual special election results can be noisy. That said, Democrats are still punching above their weight in special elections this year on average by about 6 points, and historically, overperformance in special elections has augured general-election success.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

The AP projects that Greg Lopez will win the special election for Colorado's 4th District, which was vacated by Republican Ken Buck. The former Parker, Colorado, mayor leads Democrat Trisha Calvarese, 58 to 35 percent, with 80 percent of the expected vote counted.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

As usual, tonight we'll be tracking candidates in Colorado's, New York's and Utah's primaries, along with one runoff in South Carolina, whose campaign websites use the phrase "pro-life," "sanctity of life," "right to life," "protect life," "no abortion," "against abortion" or "unborn" and do not say abortion is an issue of states' rights.

In South Carolina, abortion is banned after six weeks. In the 3rd District runoff there, Biggs describes herself as anti-abortion and has promised to "defend the sanctity of life" if elected. She has also been endorsed by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.

Abortion is banned in Utah after 18 weeks. All four Republican Senate candidates and at least one Republican House candidate in each of the state's four congressional districts are on our list, including 4th District Rep. Burgess Owens, who is running unopposed. Republican Gov. Spencer Cox is also anti-abortion, but he is nevertheless facing a challenge from the right by state Rep. Phil Lyman, who argues the governor is too moderate overall. Whoever wins the primary is likely to succeed in November against the Democratic challenger, state Rep. Brian King.

By contrast, New York law protects abortion rights, and voters may have a chance to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution if a proposed Equal Rights Amendment makes it onto the November ballot. Three Republican candidates in New York state are on our list. In the Republican-leaning 23rd and 24th districts, Rep. Nicholas Langworthy is running unopposed, and Mario Fratto, who lost to Rep. Claudia Tenney in 2022, is challenging the incumbent from the right again. But the Republican incumbent in the 22nd district, Rep. Brandon Williams, is more vulnerable, as redistricting left the district slightly bluer. Indeed, while New York Democrats plan to campaign on abortion rights to drive voters to the polls in November, Republicans in the state have been downplaying the issue.

—Monica Potts, 538