As you mentioned earlier, Jacob, Trump won Colorado's 4th District by 19 points in 2020, so Lopez's 21-point win is pretty much exactly in line with the partisanship of the district. That's notable in a year when Democrats have made a lot of hay out of their overperformances in recent special elections, like in Ohio's 6th District a couple weeks ago. It's a good reminder that individual special election results can be noisy. That said, Democrats are still punching above their weight in special elections this year on average by about 6 points, and historically, overperformance in special elections has augured general-election success.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

The AP projects that Greg Lopez will win the special election for Colorado's 4th District, which was vacated by Republican Ken Buck. The former Parker, Colorado, mayor leads Democrat Trisha Calvarese, 58 to 35 percent, with 80 percent of the expected vote counted.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

The AP now estimates that 48 percent of the expected vote has reported in the Democratic primary for New York's 16th District, and Latimer holds a 10-point lead over Bowman, 55 percent to 45 percent. Latimer is winning 63 percent of the vote in Westchester County, which he leads as county executive, and which will cast the vast majority of votes in this seat. A projection may not be far away here.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

With Boebert's win, the VIEW PAC endorsed candidate, Flora, is out. As I mentioned earlier on the blog, this race was interesting to me because it pitted two GOP women's groups against each other. VIEW PAC endorsed Flora, while Maggie's List endorsed Boebert. VIEW PAC has a history of being anti-Freedom Caucus, so it wasn't surprising they didn't back Boebert, but it was somewhat surprising they endorsed in the race at all. Of course, as the saying goes, women (even within the same party) are not a monolith!

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Utah may be safely Republican, but the MAGA faction of the party is looking to pick up seats from the traditional Republican faction in Tuesday's primaries. And the biggest prize of all is the state's open U.S. Senate seat, currently held by anti-Trump Sen. Mitt Romney.

The front-runner to replace Romney is Rep. John Curtis, whose temperament — and attitude toward Trump — are closest to Romney's. Although he hasn't taken a high-profile stand against Trump like voting for impeachment, Curtis declined to endorse Trump during this year's presidential primaries and has avoided commenting on Trump's legal issues. Another tell: Though Romney hasn't made an endorsement, much of the incumbent's political operation is behind Curtis, who is known on Capitol Hill for being the rare Republican to talk about climate change and for owning 300 pairs of quirky dress socks.

Curtis faces three opponents who are, to varying degrees, more enthusiastic about Trump. Former state House Speaker Brad Wilson has raised the most money ($2.0 million from donors, $3.0 million from himself), but his efforts to strike a happy medium between moderate and MAGA (he introduced a resolution to pay tribute to Trump shortly after his second impeachment but also blocked an effort to censure Romney for voting to convict; he endorsed Trump for president, but only after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out) may end up pleasing no one. Meanwhile, businessman Jason Walton has vocally defended Trump and is well funded thanks to a $2.5 million loan to his own campaign, but Trump himself opted to support underfunded Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs instead.

That surprising endorsement may have cost MAGA Republicans their best shot at defeating Curtis. Not only has Curtis raised $3.8 million on his own, but outside groups largely funded by moderate Republican donors have spent a whopping $9.6 million to help him or hurt Staggs. As a result, a [June 4-6 poll from HarrisX/the Deseret News/the University of Utah]) put Curtis at 47 percent support, with Wilson (24 percent), Staggs (21 percent) and Walton (8 percent) well behind.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538