With 59 percent of the expected vote reporting in South Carolina's 3rd District GOP runoff, Biggs leads Burns about 53 percent to 47 percent, according to the AP. Looking at the returns and the county-level expected vote, Burns probably will gain some ground as we get more votes from Pickens and Greenville counties, which are counties he leads in and which have among the largest number of outstanding votes left to be tallied. However, with more than half the expected vote in, Biggs is probably at least a small favorite to win at this point.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In the solidly red 24th District in Upstate New York, Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney faces a primary challenge from businessman Mario Fratto, who held Tenney to a 14-point win in her 2022 primary race. Having previously represented a seat located more in central New York, Tenney opted to run in the new 24th District in 2022 after redistricting even though she previously represented very little of it. Her weak performance partly reflected that unfamiliarity, but she's now a better-known quantity to voters in the region (and the 24th didn't change that much on a new map implemented earlier this year). Still, Fratto has tried to get to Tenney's right by claiming she's a "RINO" — Republican in name only — who has been insufficiently conservative in office. He's self-funded most of his challenge, raising $508,000 overall, but that's put him well behind Tenney's $2.0 million in receipts. Tenney has accused Fratto of being close to Nick Fuentes, a white supremacist and antisemitic leader — a claim Fratto denies. But she also felt threatened enough to run ads promoting her endorsement from Trump and attacking Fratto as "dangerously liberal."

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In the central New York-based 22nd District, Republican Rep. Brandon Williams ranks among Democrats' top targets in the House because Biden would have carried this seat by 11 percentage points in 2020, according to Daily Kos Elections. The two-way race for the Democratic nomination features DeWitt Town Councilor Sarah Klee Hood and state Sen. John Mannion in what looks to be a competitive tilt. Klee Hood narrowly lost the 2022 Democratic primary here, and she's led in fundraising with $1.4 million to Mannion's $869,000. However, Mannion represents nearly 30 percent of this seat in the state Senate, and the former high school teacher has also received $302,000 in outside spending support from teachers unions.

The only survey we've seen of this race was a late March poll by GBAO for Mannion's campaign that found him ahead 42 percent to 20 percent, but that was three months ago. Klee Hood, an Air Force veteran, has emphasized her unwavering support for abortion rights, a potential opening due to criticism Mannion has received for past comments in which he stated support for existing restrictions on abortion access. In his ads, Mannion has promised to defend abortion rights and has highlighted his long career in education.

But last week, a group of former aides to Mannion accused him of creating a hostile work environment by screaming and cursing at them, while also accusing Mannion's wife of discomforting behavior and making transphobic remarks. Mannion pushed back at the allegations, arguing that he'd never had a workplace complaint filed against him and questioning the late-breaking claims as a "false political attack."

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

With 39 percent of the expected vote reporting, Biggs holds about a 4-point edge over Burns, 52.4 percent to 47.6 percent — a lead Burns could surmount as more election day votes are counted. In the June 11 primary, a little more than 3 in 4 total votes in this district were cast on election day, and Burns won 34.5 percent of them to Biggs's 27.7 percent. By comparison, Biggs did better among early and absentee votes, beating Burns 32.3 percent to 28.9 percent. But at this point, it appears most of the early and absentee votes are accounted for, based on information from the South Carolina Election Commission, so if Burns can repeat his election day advantage from the primary, he might just catch Biggs.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

While Democrats see New York as central to their path back to the House majority, the 1st District is often the red-headed step-child of the half-dozen competitive Empire State seats. National Democratic strategists are far more excited about the prospect of beating Republican incumbents in the 4th District (Anthony D’Esposito), 17th District (Mike Lawler), 19th District (Marc Molinaro) and 22nd District (Brandon Williams) than they are about taking on LaLota.

Long Island has been very difficult for Democrats not named Tom Suozzi over the past three years, and the 1st was even redrawn to be one Biden would have carried narrowly in 2020 to one Trump would have carried narrowly. Avlon will need to leverage his national network to get his contest more attention and funding, especially given how expensive it is to air TV ads in the New York media market.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections