Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.

Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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No surprises in the primaries for U.S. Senate

As expected, given that both were unopposed, ABC News has projected that both Republican David McCormick and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey will win their respective primaries and advance to the general election for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat this November. Casey starts out with a slight advantage in both fundraising and the polls, but most analysts are still predicting a tight race.

—Cooper Burton, 538


Stelson is likely to win the Democratic nomination in the 10th District

In Pennsylvania's 10th District, where several Democrats were in today’s primary, former evening news anchor Janelle Stelson is currently leading with 48 percent of the expected vote in. Stelson has backing from EMILY’s List, which is historically a good sign. According to our analysis of the 2022 primaries, 85 percent of candidates endorsed by EMILY’s List’s in open primaries won their races. Interestingly, three candidates in open primaries endorsed by EMILY's List in California did not advance to the general election, which will bring down their success rate. But we'll need to wait and see how EMILY's List candidates do overall this cycle.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


How anti-abortion candidates are doing

As I mentioned earlier, I'm tracking how anti-abortion Republicans are doing tonight. As Mary said, most Pennsylvanians support legal abortion, and it's shaping up to be a big issue in November. Three of the races I'm tracking are uncontested, and so we already have projected winners. Two incumbents, Rep. Scott Perry, who has six Democrats running to face off against him, and Lloyd Smucker, whose Democratic opponent pilot Jim Atkinson is also uncontested in the primary, are among the group. Aaron Bashir, a mathematics teacher at a community college and accountant for the city of Philadelphia, is the only Republican running to face off against incumbent Democrat Brendan Davis in the fall. He lost against Davis in 2022.

—Monica Potts, 538


Stelson leads in Democratic primary to face hard-right Perry

In the 10th District around Harrisburg, we now have early votes in from across all three counties in the district, representing almost half of the expected primary vote. This race doesn't look particularly close, either, as Stelson leads with 46 percent, followed by O'Brien with 21 percent and Daniels 13 percent. Hard to see Stelson losing that kind of edge at this point. The winner will face Rep. Scott Perry, the former House Freedom Caucus chair.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


A crowd of Democrats vying to challenge hard-right Republican Scott Perry in Pennsylvania's 10th District

In the Harrisburg-based 10th District, Republican Rep. Scott Perry won reelection by a little less than 8 percentage points in 2022. But he remains a target for Democrats, thanks to the district's potential competitiveness and Perry's reputation as an archconservative. A crowd of six contenders have entered the Democratic primary to earn the right to face Perry in November, and there's some degree of uncertainty about how this primary might play out.

If there's a front-runner, it's probably former news anchor Janelle Stelson, whose long tenure at WGAL in the Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York TV market has made her a familiar face in the region. Stelson had raised $577,000 as of April 3, and she has endorsements from EMILY's List and the business-friendly New Democratic Action Fund. However, Stelson has competition in retired Marine fighter pilot Mike O'Brien, who has slightly outraised Stelson by bringing in $736,000. The other candidate of note is Harrisburg City Council member Shamaine Daniels, the party's 2022 nominee against Perry, although she's only raised $73,000.

But both Stelson and O'Brien have faced questions about their ties to the district, as Stelson lives just outside it in Lancaster County and O'Brien only recently moved to the area. Stelson has also faced scrutiny for having only recently switched her party registration from Republican to Democrat and for having made a racist joke on air around a decade ago involving Asians eating cats. Whether that's enough to derail her remains to be seen: The only recent poll we've seen was a late February survey for Stelson's campaign by Normington, Petts & Associates that found her leading with 36 percent, followed by Daniels at 16 percent and O'Brien at 9 percent.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538