Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.

Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Where are the female Republican candidates?

Today's House primaries in Pennsylvania feature a dearth of Republican women: Of the 19 GOP candidates running today, just two are women. To get a sense of how lopsided this is, as we saw earlier, 12 out of the 25 candidates running for the U.S. House on the Democratic side are women.

Since about the mid-1990s, Democrats have been electing more women to Congress than Republicans, due in large part to more Democratic women running. That said, in both the 2020 and 2022 cycles, more Republican women ran in primaries than ever before. But what's more important to electing more women is where women are running, and if they are competing in places they can win in November.

In Pennsylvania's 5th District, Alfeia Goodwin is the only Republican candidate on the ballot, so in that sense she's set up to succeed in her primary! However, in November she'll face incumbent Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon, who handily won reelection in 2022 and is almost certain to hold the safe blue district. This race illustrates the "sacrificial lamb" phenomenon where a candidate runs unopposed in the primary for a losing seat. There's from political science that Republican women are sacrificial lamb nominees more often than Democratic women.

Things are more interesting in the 7th District race Kaleigh just previewed, where the Democratic incumbent, Rep. Susan Wild, barely eked out a win in 2022 against a female Republican nominee, Lisa Scheller. Scheller isn't running for the GOP nomination this cycle, but another woman, attorney Maria Montero, is on the ballot today against state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie and Kevin Dellicker, a veteran and cybersecurity business owner.

Although this is a seat Republicans are targeting in November, Trump hasn't endorsed anyone in the primary race. But a Trump surrogate, former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, has been . She hasn't received an endorsement from any of the GOP women's groups we are tracking (VIEW PAC, Maggie's List, E-Pac, and Winning for Women). That said, E-Pac, which was started by Trump acolyte Rep. Elise Stefanik, hasn't made any primary endorsements this cycle, despite its stated mission to elevate women in primaries.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Three Republicans duke it out to challenge Rep. Susan Wild in PA-07

The Lehigh Valley, around Allentown in eastern Pennsylvania, is the backdrop to what is set to be one of the most competitive House races in the state (and the nation) this fall: the 7th District. Democratic Rep. Susan Wild will be squaring off against one of three Republicans vying to challenge the three-term congresswoman. In 2022, Wild held onto her seat by just 2 points in this competitive district, and Republicans are hoping they can finally flip it. Razor-thin races like this will help determine if the GOP can maintain control of the House.

The three Republicans battling it out in the GOP primary are Kevin Dellicker, a consulting company owner who was the runner-up in the 2022 primary, attorney Maria Montero, and state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, a local boy who has represented the region in the general assembly since 2012. Dellicker has outraised his opponents by about double, according to recent FEC filings, bringing in $447,000 to Mackenzie's $272,000 and Montero's $214,000. But Mackenzie has received substantial outside support to the tune of almost half a million dollars from Americans for Prosperity Action, a libertarian super PAC founded by the Koch brothers. There's no polling available for this race and not a ton of daylight between the three candidates when it comes to policy positions on hot-button issues like immigration, abortion and climate change, so it could be anyone's race. However, the heavy spending on Mackenzie's campaign and his local name recognition are distinct advantages.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538


Voters closely split on Biden's support for Israel and Palestine

According to a Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research/Fox News poll released last week, a plurality, 40 percent, of Pennsylvania voters feel that the Biden administration has been about right in its support for both the Israelis and Palestinians. Twenty-four percent said the administration has been too supportive of the Israelis, and a similar 23 percent said it has been too supportive of the Palestinians.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Pennsylvania features the first real primary challenge against The Squad

The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has paved the way for some bitter Democratic primary fights in 2024. Among those most critical of Israel's actions in the conflict has been The Squad, an informal group of around nine progressive Democrats who often clash with their party's establishment. Of that cohort, Rep. Summer Lee of Pittsburgh is the first to face a contested primary in 2024 — but she won't be the last. At least four members, including Lee, have potentially significant primary opposition in part because of their vocal denouncements of Israel — although increasingly negative views of the Middle East nation's actions among the Democratic base means the conflict may not be as helpful to The Squad's challengers as some may have expected.

Should Lee survive, she would join Reps. Greg Casar of Texas and Delia Ramirez of Illinois among those who've won renomination (Casar and Ramirez faced no opposition in their March primaries). But some members with primaries later this summer may have problems, especially the two who are arguably most endangered: New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman and Missouri Rep. Cori Bush. For one thing, they've each been outraised by their leading challengers, and they both have potential scandals that could derail their reelection efforts. Last fall, Bowman pulled a fire alarm in a Capitol office building right before a vote, which resulted in him paying a fine and receiving a censure from the House. And Bush faces investigations by the Department of Justice, Federal Election Commission and House Ethics Committee into alleged misuse of funds to pay her security team, including payments to her husband as part of that team.

Beyond those two, Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar may be the other Squad member who could have some trouble. Two years ago, she defeated former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels by just 2 percentage points in the Democratic primary; now Samuels is back for a rematch, although Omar has already raised more than twice as much as the $2.4 million she'd brought in by the time of the 2022 primary>. Otherwise, there are few signs that New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib and Massachusetts Rep. Ayanna Pressley will have difficulties. Ocasio-Cortez does have a challenger, but his largely self-funded effort pales in comparison to Ocasio-Cortez's campaign war chest, while Tlaib's little-known opponents only just filed for the race and haven't reported raising any money. Pressley, meanwhile, has no primary opposition ahead of Massachusetts's May 7 candidate filing deadline.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


A crowd of Democrats vying to challenge hard-right Republican Scott Perry in Pennsylvania's 10th District

In the Harrisburg-based 10th District, Republican Rep. Scott Perry won reelection by a little less than 8 percentage points in 2022. But he remains a target for Democrats, thanks to the district's potential competitiveness and Perry's reputation as an archconservative. A crowd of six contenders have entered the Democratic primary to earn the right to face Perry in November, and there's some degree of uncertainty about how this primary might play out.

If there's a front-runner, it's probably former news anchor Janelle Stelson, whose long tenure at WGAL in the Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York TV market has made her a familiar face in the region. Stelson had raised $577,000 as of April 3, and she has endorsements from EMILY's List and the business-friendly New Democratic Action Fund. However, Stelson has competition in retired Marine fighter pilot Mike O'Brien, who has slightly outraised Stelson by bringing in $736,000. The other candidate of note is Harrisburg City Council member Shamaine Daniels, the party's 2022 nominee against Perry, although she's only raised $73,000.

But both Stelson and O'Brien have faced questions about their ties to the district, as Stelson lives just outside it in Lancaster County and O'Brien only recently moved to the area. Stelson has also faced scrutiny for having only recently switched her party registration from Republican to Democrat and for having made a racist joke on air around a decade ago involving Asians eating cats. Whether that's enough to derail her remains to be seen: The only recent poll we've seen was a late February survey for Stelson's campaign by Normington, Petts & Associates that found her leading with 36 percent, followed by Daniels at 16 percent and O'Brien at 9 percent.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538