Given the way Pennsylvanians feel about the economy in the commonwealth, Tia, whoever makes the ballot in the state treasurer race may have their work cut out for them. Pennsylvania voters are more optimistic about the direction of the U.S. economy than voters in other swing states, according to a GBAO/Fabrizio Lee/Wall Street Journal poll from March. Thirty percent of Pennsylvanians said the U.S. economy has gotten better in the last two years, the highest of the seven swing states surveyed. However, voters are less happy with how things are going in the commonwealth; just 20 percent said that the Pennsylvania economy has gotten better over the last two years, fewer than all but one of the states included in the survey (Arizona, in which 19 percent said things had gotten better).

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

ABC News has projected that Dave Sunday will win the Republican nomination for attorney general and will run for the open seat in November. Sunday currently has 66 percent of the vote, with 31 percent of the expected vote reporting. On the Democratic side, Eugene DePasquale is leading with 39 percent, and 54 percent of the expected vote reporting.

—Monica Potts, 538

In one of tonight's competitive statewide races, Pittsburgh-area small business owner Erin McClelland is in the lead over Erie State Rep. Ryan Bizzarro on the back of the mail-in vote from Allegheny County. With around 40 percent of the expected vote in, McClelland is leading with around 57 percent to 43 percent of the vote, according to the state election returns site. Bizzarro may close in on this lead, since he's doing better in other parts of the state — but he's only barely in the lead there as well. (For example, he's up by less than 3 points in Philly and losing by 8 points in Bucks.)

Bizzarro has the state party's nomination and state campaign finance reports show that he outspent McClelland $348,000 to $23,000 in the cycle! This is an impressive showing. It may say something about regional power dynamics in the state, since Bizzarro is one of the few candidates in today's statewide contests who doesn't hail from either the Philly or Pittsburgh regions.

—Tia Yang, 538

ABC News reports that Lee is projected to defeat Patel in the 12th District Democratic primary. She currently leads 59 percent to 41 percent with 73 percent of the expected vote reporting. Lee is the first member of the progressive group of House members known as The Squad to face a primary challenge this cycle, but she's turned back her opposition. She will be easily favored to win in November in a seat that Biden would've carried by 20 points in 2020.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In Bucks County, just outside Philadelphia, steadfast moderate Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is facing a primary challenge from the right for his seat in the 1st District. Mark Houck is an anti-abortion activist and head of a nonprofit ministry group for Catholic men who made a name for himself as a bit of an anti-abortion martyr when he was charged with assault (but found not guilty) after shoving a 72-year-old clinic volunteer in 2021 while protesting outside a Planned Parenthood in Philadelphia. Fitzpatrick was first elected to Congress in 2016, succeeding his brother (the late former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick). He's faced a primary challenger in every election since, but has always triumphed.

Fitzpatrick has made a reputation for himself locally and on the Hill as a moderate who keeps his distance from the MAGA right. He's got a track record of bipartisanship and moderate policy stances in Congress and refused to endorse Doug Mastriano, the GOP's far-right nominee for governor in 2022. He even snubbed Trump's visit to Bucks County earlier this month. His position on abortion has been a bit less clear — there's no mention of abortion on his reelection campaign website — though he has drawn ire from abortion rights groups. He's certainly no culture warrior like Houck, whose organization opposes "same-sex attraction disorders" and pornography, and works to shut down "sexually oriented businesses."

But whoever wins this primary isn't necessarily a shoe-in for the seat. Fitzpatrick or Houck will be going up against Democrat Ashley Ehasz. Fitzpatrick defeated Ehasz in 2022 by 10 percentage points, but the area is purple and shows signs of shifting blue — Biden won the district in 2020, and Democrats swept all five seats up for grabs in a recent local school board election. Fitzpatrick is the lone Republican in the districts surrounding Philadelphia, though his is the whitest of those collar counties and the conservative areas of the county are increasingly polarized. That could mean Fitzpatrick faces serious competition from Houck in the party primary, but Houck's far-right leanings could tilt the general election contest toward Democrats if he makes the ballot in November.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538