Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.

Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


0

No surprises in the primaries for U.S. Senate

As expected, given that both were unopposed, ABC News has projected that both Republican David McCormick and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey will win their respective primaries and advance to the general election for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat this November. Casey starts out with a slight advantage in both fundraising and the polls, but most analysts are still predicting a tight race.

—Cooper Burton, 538


Stelson is likely to win the Democratic nomination in the 10th District

In Pennsylvania's 10th District, where several Democrats were in today’s primary, former evening news anchor Janelle Stelson is currently leading with 48 percent of the expected vote in. Stelson has backing from EMILY’s List, which is historically a good sign. According to our analysis of the 2022 primaries, 85 percent of candidates endorsed by EMILY’s List’s in open primaries won their races. Interestingly, three candidates in open primaries endorsed by EMILY's List in California did not advance to the general election, which will bring down their success rate. But we'll need to wait and see how EMILY's List candidates do overall this cycle.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


How anti-abortion candidates are doing

As I mentioned earlier, I'm tracking how anti-abortion Republicans are doing tonight. As Mary said, most Pennsylvanians support legal abortion, and it's shaping up to be a big issue in November. Three of the races I'm tracking are uncontested, and so we already have projected winners. Two incumbents, Rep. Scott Perry, who has six Democrats running to face off against him, and Lloyd Smucker, whose Democratic opponent pilot Jim Atkinson is also uncontested in the primary, are among the group. Aaron Bashir, a mathematics teacher at a community college and accountant for the city of Philadelphia, is the only Republican running to face off against incumbent Democrat Brendan Davis in the fall. He lost against Davis in 2022.

—Monica Potts, 538


Stelson leads in Democratic primary to face hard-right Perry

In the 10th District around Harrisburg, we now have early votes in from across all three counties in the district, representing almost half of the expected primary vote. This race doesn't look particularly close, either, as Stelson leads with 46 percent, followed by O'Brien with 21 percent and Daniels 13 percent. Hard to see Stelson losing that kind of edge at this point. The winner will face Rep. Scott Perry, the former House Freedom Caucus chair.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Can a hard-right anti-abortion activist take on the GOP's moderate posterboy?

In Bucks County, just outside Philadelphia, steadfast moderate Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is facing a primary challenge from the right for his seat in the 1st District. Mark Houck is an anti-abortion activist and head of a nonprofit ministry group for Catholic men who made a name for himself as a bit of an anti-abortion martyr when he was charged with assault (but found not guilty) after shoving a 72-year-old clinic volunteer in 2021 while protesting outside a Planned Parenthood in Philadelphia. Fitzpatrick was first elected to Congress in 2016, succeeding his brother (the late former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick). He's faced a primary challenger in every election since, but has always triumphed.

Fitzpatrick has made a reputation for himself locally and on the Hill as a moderate who keeps his distance from the MAGA right. He's got a track record of bipartisanship and moderate policy stances in Congress and refused to endorse Doug Mastriano, the GOP's far-right nominee for governor in 2022. He even snubbed Trump's visit to Bucks County earlier this month. His position on abortion has been a bit less clear — there's no mention of abortion on his reelection campaign website — though he has drawn ire from abortion rights groups. He's certainly no culture warrior like Houck, whose organization opposes "same-sex attraction disorders" and pornography, and works to shut down "sexually oriented businesses."

But whoever wins this primary isn't necessarily a shoe-in for the seat. Fitzpatrick or Houck will be going up against Democrat Ashley Ehasz. Fitzpatrick defeated Ehasz in 2022 by 10 percentage points, but the area is purple and shows signs of shifting blue — Biden won the district in 2020, and Democrats swept all five seats up for grabs in a recent local school board election. Fitzpatrick is the lone Republican in the districts surrounding Philadelphia, though his is the whitest of those collar counties and the conservative areas of the county are increasingly polarized. That could mean Fitzpatrick faces serious competition from Houck in the party primary, but Houck's far-right leanings could tilt the general election contest toward Democrats if he makes the ballot in November.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538