Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.

Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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No surprises in the primaries for U.S. Senate

As expected, given that both were unopposed, ABC News has projected that both Republican David McCormick and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey will win their respective primaries and advance to the general election for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat this November. Casey starts out with a slight advantage in both fundraising and the polls, but most analysts are still predicting a tight race.

—Cooper Burton, 538


Stelson is likely to win the Democratic nomination in the 10th District

In Pennsylvania's 10th District, where several Democrats were in today’s primary, former evening news anchor Janelle Stelson is currently leading with 48 percent of the expected vote in. Stelson has backing from EMILY’s List, which is historically a good sign. According to our analysis of the 2022 primaries, 85 percent of candidates endorsed by EMILY’s List’s in open primaries won their races. Interestingly, three candidates in open primaries endorsed by EMILY's List in California did not advance to the general election, which will bring down their success rate. But we'll need to wait and see how EMILY's List candidates do overall this cycle.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


How anti-abortion candidates are doing

As I mentioned earlier, I'm tracking how anti-abortion Republicans are doing tonight. As Mary said, most Pennsylvanians support legal abortion, and it's shaping up to be a big issue in November. Three of the races I'm tracking are uncontested, and so we already have projected winners. Two incumbents, Rep. Scott Perry, who has six Democrats running to face off against him, and Lloyd Smucker, whose Democratic opponent pilot Jim Atkinson is also uncontested in the primary, are among the group. Aaron Bashir, a mathematics teacher at a community college and accountant for the city of Philadelphia, is the only Republican running to face off against incumbent Democrat Brendan Davis in the fall. He lost against Davis in 2022.

—Monica Potts, 538


Stelson leads in Democratic primary to face hard-right Perry

In the 10th District around Harrisburg, we now have early votes in from across all three counties in the district, representing almost half of the expected primary vote. This race doesn't look particularly close, either, as Stelson leads with 46 percent, followed by O'Brien with 21 percent and Daniels 13 percent. Hard to see Stelson losing that kind of edge at this point. The winner will face Rep. Scott Perry, the former House Freedom Caucus chair.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Candidates of color to watch

We'll be keeping an eye on how candidates of color perform in tonight's House primaries. Racial diversity in Congress has steadily grown over the past two decades, with nonwhite representatives skewing heavily Democratic. In today's races, six candidates of color are running in Democratic primaries compared with four Republican hopefuls.

In the Pittsburgh-area 12th District, Democratic Rep. Summer Lee is seeking a second term after winning a fiercely contested primary by less than 1,000 votes in 2022, when she became the first Black woman to be elected to Congress from Pennsylvania. This year, she faces a primary challenge from Bhavini Patel, an Indian-American small business owner and Edgewood Borough Council member. Patel has aligned herself as a more moderate, pro-Israel foil to Lee, a member of The Squad — a group composed entirely of young progressives of color — who was heavily targeted by AIPAC in her first congressional bid.

Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans, another Black incumbent, is facing a primary challenger in Tracey Gordon, former Philadelphia register of wills. The majority Black, deep-blue 3rd District spans much of central and west Philadelphia, where tonight's winner is all but guaranteed to win the seat in November. The scandal-embroiled Gordon is an underdog candidate here, though she has some experience with that: She defeated a 40-year incumbent in the 2019 primary on the way to becoming the city's register of wills, but lost her reelection bid last May.

A six-way Democratic primary in the 10th District includes Harrisburg City Council member Shamaine Daniels and Blake Lynch, a former local radio executive. Daniels was the Democratic nominee in 2022, but was defeated by Republican Rep. Scott Perry, the former chair of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus. Whoever wins tonight will face Perry in November.

On the Republican side, attorney Maria Montero is one of three Republicans vying to face 7th District Democratic Rep. Susan Wild in what is anticipated to be a highly competitive general election. Entrepreneur Aaron Bashir, former Army chaplain Alfeia Goodwin and business executive James Hayes are each running unopposed in today's Republican primaries in their districts. All three are assured a spot on the ballot in November, but face long odds against Democratic incumbents in solidly blue districts.

—Irena Li, 538