Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November
538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.
Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.
Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
- Last big projections of the evening: McClelland secures the treasurer upset
- Republican Jeffrey Olsommer on track to win Pennsylvania's only special election
- Mackenzie projected to win PA-07 and take on Rep. Susan Wild
- DePasquale projected to win the Democratic AG primary
- Stelson projected to win Democratic primary in 10th District
The 12th District Democratic primary will test The Squad’s strength
In the Pittsburgh-based 12th District, progressive Rep. Summer Lee could be vulnerable against Edgewood Borough Council member Bhavini Patel in the Democratic primary. Two years ago, in her first bid for this seat, Lee only won her primary by less than a point. And Patel's challenge has turned into a referendum on Lee's party bona fides. Behind this is Lee's membership in The Squad, a group of progressive House Democrats who've often been at odds with party leaders. This has been especially apparent in the intraparty debate over the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, most recently demonstrated by The Squad joining with about one-sixth of House Democrats in voting against foreign aid to Israel.
Lee's critics have often portrayed her as more dogmatic than pragmatic, a theme Patel's campaign has played up by arguing that Lee wants to undermine Biden and the Democratic Party. She has run ads attacking Lee for opposing the Biden administration and criticized Lee's support for the "uncommitted" movement in the presidential primary that wants Biden to adopt a less pro-Israel stance. Lee has countered by emphasizing her ability to bring federal investment to the district and her pro-choice record. Her campaign has also criticized "Republican-funded super PACs" for meddling — a reference to Patel's backing from Moderate PAC, a group mostly funded by a GOP donor, and the potential influence of the bipartisan American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has said it might spend $100 million against progressives this cycle.
Heading into the primary, Lee probably has the upper hand. We have no polls, but Lee had outraised Patel nearly 4-to-1 ($2.3 million to $602,000) as of April 3. Meanwhile, outside spending has run about even, according to OpenSecrets. Surprisingly, though, AIPAC's super PAC has not spent money against Lee despite investing $3.9 million to stop her in the 2022 primary. That may mean that AIPAC thinks Patel can't win, that she already has sufficient support and/or that support associated with AIPAC could harm Patel more than help her.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Listen to the 538 Politics podcast while you’re waiting for results!
It'll still be a little while before full results start rolling in from Pennsylvania, and, in the meantime, allow me to suggest some easy listening. Yup, it's the 538 Politics podcast!
On Monday's episode we previewed a couple of tonight's races in Pennsylvania and talked about the state's significance come November. We also considered whether House Speaker Mike Johnson can last as something of a coalitional speaker, frequently relying on votes from Democrats to get legislation passed. And lastly, we tested our knowledge of what Americans think about climate change, according to the polls. Give it a listen!
—Galen Druke, 538
Welcome!
Happy primary day to those who celebrate! (That's us, fellow Pennsyvlanians.)
The Keystone State is already in the public eye this election cycle, as it's expected to be a battleground state for both the presidential race and a critical U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and Republican David McCormick. And there are consequential races down the ballot, too: Several competitive U.S. House races could impact the balance of the House majority, while Democrats are hoping to compete for control of both chambers of the state legislature to earn their first state government trifecta in more than 30 years.
And while the candidates for president and Senate are set, today's primary contests will determine just who's on the ballot from each party in those key down ballot races. Tonight, we're closely tracking a handful of significant U.S. House races, including progressive Rep. Summer Lee's bid to hold off a more moderate challenger; moderate Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick's challenge from the hard right; and a three-way GOP primary to decide who will face off against Rep. Susan Wild in one of the most competitive House races this fall. We've also got our eyes on some hotly contested primary contests for statewide offices like attorney general and a number of spicy state legislative races.
As usual, we'll be here to guide you through it all with the latest results and analysis throughout the evening. We should start seeing results come in shortly after polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. Thanks for joining us!
—Tia Yang, 538
Candidates of color to watch
We'll be keeping an eye on how candidates of color perform in tonight's House primaries. Racial diversity in Congress has steadily grown over the past two decades, with nonwhite representatives skewing heavily Democratic. In today's races, six candidates of color are running in Democratic primaries compared with four Republican hopefuls.
In the Pittsburgh-area 12th District, Democratic Rep. Summer Lee is seeking a second term after winning a fiercely contested primary by less than 1,000 votes in 2022, when she became the first Black woman to be elected to Congress from Pennsylvania. This year, she faces a primary challenge from Bhavini Patel, an Indian-American small business owner and Edgewood Borough Council member. Patel has aligned herself as a more moderate, pro-Israel foil to Lee, a member of The Squad — a group composed entirely of young progressives of color — who was heavily targeted by AIPAC in her first congressional bid.
Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans, another Black incumbent, is facing a primary challenger in Tracey Gordon, former Philadelphia register of wills. The majority Black, deep-blue 3rd District spans much of central and west Philadelphia, where tonight's winner is all but guaranteed to win the seat in November. The scandal-embroiled Gordon is an underdog candidate here, though she has some experience with that: She defeated a 40-year incumbent in the 2019 primary on the way to becoming the city's register of wills, but lost her reelection bid last May.
A six-way Democratic primary in the 10th District includes Harrisburg City Council member Shamaine Daniels and Blake Lynch, a former local radio executive. Daniels was the Democratic nominee in 2022, but was defeated by Republican Rep. Scott Perry, the former chair of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus. Whoever wins tonight will face Perry in November.
On the Republican side, attorney Maria Montero is one of three Republicans vying to face 7th District Democratic Rep. Susan Wild in what is anticipated to be a highly competitive general election. Entrepreneur Aaron Bashir, former Army chaplain Alfeia Goodwin and business executive James Hayes are each running unopposed in today's Republican primaries in their districts. All three are assured a spot on the ballot in November, but face long odds against Democratic incumbents in solidly blue districts.
—Irena Li, 538