Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.

Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Stelson is likely to win the Democratic nomination in the 10th District

In Pennsylvania's 10th District, where several Democrats were in today’s primary, former evening news anchor Janelle Stelson is currently leading with 48 percent of the expected vote in. Stelson has backing from EMILY’s List, which is historically a good sign. According to our analysis of the 2022 primaries, 85 percent of candidates endorsed by EMILY’s List’s in open primaries won their races. Interestingly, three candidates in open primaries endorsed by EMILY's List in California did not advance to the general election, which will bring down their success rate. But we'll need to wait and see how EMILY's List candidates do overall this cycle.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


How anti-abortion candidates are doing

As I mentioned earlier, I'm tracking how anti-abortion Republicans are doing tonight. As Mary said, most Pennsylvanians support legal abortion, and it's shaping up to be a big issue in November. Three of the races I'm tracking are uncontested, and so we already have projected winners. Two incumbents, Rep. Scott Perry, who has six Democrats running to face off against him, and Lloyd Smucker, whose Democratic opponent pilot Jim Atkinson is also uncontested in the primary, are among the group. Aaron Bashir, a mathematics teacher at a community college and accountant for the city of Philadelphia, is the only Republican running to face off against incumbent Democrat Brendan Davis in the fall. He lost against Davis in 2022.

—Monica Potts, 538


Stelson leads in Democratic primary to face hard-right Perry

In the 10th District around Harrisburg, we now have early votes in from across all three counties in the district, representing almost half of the expected primary vote. This race doesn't look particularly close, either, as Stelson leads with 46 percent, followed by O'Brien with 21 percent and Daniels 13 percent. Hard to see Stelson losing that kind of edge at this point. The winner will face Rep. Scott Perry, the former House Freedom Caucus chair.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


But PA-01 may be a tighter race this time around

That’s right, Meredith, and as I mentioned earlier, Fitzpatrick beat Ehasz by 10 points in 2022, but there are signs that this race could be tighter. It’s a purple district that has seen some shifts to the left, namely some recent school board elections. Voters flipped the Central Bucks School District from majority Republican to majority Democratic in an election last year, and Democrats swept the Pennridge School Board election. Of course, school board elections have their own quirks, particularly with some of the identity politics issues that have come to a head in recent years, but we could see a similar friction emerge with abortion as a hot-button issue in the general. While Fitzpatrick is hardly an anti-abortion activist, it’s an area where he hasn’t been as clearly moderate (he’s voted for abortion bans, for example, and his campaign website avoids the issue entirely), and Ehasz has a clear advantage on this front. Of course, Fitzpatrick’s incumbency and the more conservative reaches of the district could certainly be enough to keep him in his seat, but I’d be willing to bet it will be by a slimmer margin than last time, if he manages to pull it off.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538


GOP women in the Keystone State

As I mentioned earlier, only two Republican women are running in House races today, compared to 15 Democratic women. And only one woman, Maria Montero in the 7th, is running in a seat where the party could be competitive in November. Pennsylvania has slightly below average female representation in their state legislature (which is just 32 percent female), and they've never had a female U.S. senator or governor (of any party). A state's history of electing women to political office is actually a pretty good predictor of electing more women in the future. Research indicates that once a state has elected a woman to a particular office, future female candidates are more likely to be successful in seeking that same office. Experts suggest this is due to increased familiarity and acceptance of women in political leadership and the establishment of support networks and resources for female candidates.

ABC hasn't made a projection in Montero's race yet, but The Associated Press has already projected it for state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. Per the latest results, with 50 percent of the expected vote reporting, Montero trails, with 28 percent of the vote to Mackenzie's 43 percent and business owner Kevin Dellicker's 30 percent.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor