Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November
538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.
Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.
Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
- Last big projections of the evening: McClelland secures the treasurer upset
- Republican Jeffrey Olsommer on track to win Pennsylvania's only special election
- Mackenzie projected to win PA-07 and take on Rep. Susan Wild
- DePasquale projected to win the Democratic AG primary
- Stelson projected to win Democratic primary in 10th District
Biden and Trump projected to win their primaries in Pennsylvania
Coming as no surprise to anyone, ABC News projects that Biden and Trump will win their respective primaries in the Keystone State. But that doesn't mean voters are going to be happy about the outcome in November. In a March survey by Franklin and Marshall College, a majority of Pennsylvania voters said they would be sad if either Biden or Trump is reelected. When asked if they would feel happy or sad if each candidate won, 50 percent said they would be sad if Biden won and 53 percent said the same about Trump. Forty-eight percent said they would be happy if Biden won, and 43 percent would be happy if Trump won.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Incumbent Dwight Evans wins in the 3rd
ABC reports that Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans is projected to win his primary in the central and west Philadelphia-based 3rd District. With 29 percent of the expected vote reporting, Evans has a resounding 89 percent of the vote over challenger Tracey Gordon, the city's former register of wills. Evans has effectively secured a fifth term in Congress tonight, with no Republican challenger currently on the ballot in this majority Black, deep-blue district.
—Irena Li, 538
Fitzpatrick will likely face off against Ehasz, again
As Kaleigh just mentioned, Fitzpatrick is well ahead of his challenger from the right, Houck, in the 1st District. This means those voters will see a redux of the 2022 race, when he beat Democrat, Army Apache helicopter pilot Ashley Ehasz. Ehasz is supported by EMILY's List, the pro-choice organization working to elect more women to Congress.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
In Alabama, Republican Caroleene Dobson advances from the run-off in the 2nd District
Slight break from Pennsylvania ... As I just mentioned earlier, the GOP is trailing Democrats when it comes to nominating women to competitive races. But last Tuesday, attorney Caroleene Dobson beat Dick Brewbaker, a businessman and former state senator in the runoff in Alabama's 2nd District, so she will be on the ballot in November. Dobson had backing from VIEWPAC, which was founded in 1997 to help elect qualified, viable Republican women to Congress. The Democrats also had a runoff, which was won by a Biden administration alum, Shomari Figures.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Incumbent women face more challengers than incumbent men
As Geoffrey just mentioned, Summer Lee is leading her primary challenger, Bhavini Patel, in the 12th District. Political science research actually finds that incumbent women in Congress are more likely to face challengers than incumbent men. This is due to several factors, such as a history of women's underrepresentation which gives the impression that female incumbents are more vulnerable; this leads to higher quality challengers, too.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor