In Pennsylvania's 10th District, where several Democrats were in today’s primary, former evening news anchor Janelle Stelson is currently leading with 48 percent of the expected vote in. Stelson has backing from EMILY’s List, which is historically a good sign. According to our analysis of the 2022 primaries, 85 percent of candidates endorsed by EMILY’s List’s in open primaries won their races. Interestingly, three candidates in open primaries endorsed by EMILY's List in California did not advance to the general election, which will bring down their success rate. But we'll need to wait and see how EMILY's List candidates do overall this cycle.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

As I mentioned earlier, I'm tracking how anti-abortion Republicans are doing tonight. As Mary said, most Pennsylvanians support legal abortion, and it's shaping up to be a big issue in November. Three of the races I'm tracking are uncontested, and so we already have projected winners. Two incumbents, Rep. Scott Perry, who has six Democrats running to face off against him, and Lloyd Smucker, whose Democratic opponent pilot Jim Atkinson is also uncontested in the primary, are among the group. Aaron Bashir, a mathematics teacher at a community college and accountant for the city of Philadelphia, is the only Republican running to face off against incumbent Democrat Brendan Davis in the fall. He lost against Davis in 2022.

—Monica Potts, 538

In the 10th District around Harrisburg, we now have early votes in from across all three counties in the district, representing almost half of the expected primary vote. This race doesn't look particularly close, either, as Stelson leads with 46 percent, followed by O'Brien with 21 percent and Daniels 13 percent. Hard to see Stelson losing that kind of edge at this point. The winner will face Rep. Scott Perry, the former House Freedom Caucus chair.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

That’s right, Meredith, and as I mentioned earlier, Fitzpatrick beat Ehasz by 10 points in 2022, but there are signs that this race could be tighter. It’s a purple district that has seen some shifts to the left, namely some recent school board elections. Voters flipped the Central Bucks School District from majority Republican to majority Democratic in an election last year, and Democrats swept the Pennridge School Board election. Of course, school board elections have their own quirks, particularly with some of the identity politics issues that have come to a head in recent years, but we could see a similar friction emerge with abortion as a hot-button issue in the general. While Fitzpatrick is hardly an anti-abortion activist, it’s an area where he hasn’t been as clearly moderate (he’s voted for abortion bans, for example, and his campaign website avoids the issue entirely), and Ehasz has a clear advantage on this front. Of course, Fitzpatrick’s incumbency and the more conservative reaches of the district could certainly be enough to keep him in his seat, but I’d be willing to bet it will be by a slimmer margin than last time, if he manages to pull it off.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has paved the way for some bitter Democratic primary fights in 2024. Among those most critical of Israel's actions in the conflict has been The Squad, an informal group of around nine progressive Democrats who often clash with their party's establishment. Of that cohort, Rep. Summer Lee of Pittsburgh is the first to face a contested primary in 2024 — but she won't be the last. At least four members, including Lee, have potentially significant primary opposition in part because of their vocal denouncements of Israel — although increasingly negative views of the Middle East nation's actions among the Democratic base means the conflict may not be as helpful to The Squad's challengers as some may have expected.

Should Lee survive, she would join Reps. Greg Casar of Texas and Delia Ramirez of Illinois among those who've won renomination (Casar and Ramirez faced no opposition in their March primaries). But some members with primaries later this summer may have problems, especially the two who are arguably most endangered: New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman and Missouri Rep. Cori Bush. For one thing, they've each been outraised by their leading challengers, and they both have potential scandals that could derail their reelection efforts. Last fall, Bowman pulled a fire alarm in a Capitol office building right before a vote, which resulted in him paying a fine and receiving a censure from the House. And Bush faces investigations by the Department of Justice, Federal Election Commission and House Ethics Committee into alleged misuse of funds to pay her security team, including payments to her husband as part of that team.

Beyond those two, Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar may be the other Squad member who could have some trouble. Two years ago, she defeated former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels by just 2 percentage points in the Democratic primary; now Samuels is back for a rematch, although Omar has already raised more than twice as much as the $2.4 million she'd brought in by the time of the 2022 primary>. Otherwise, there are few signs that New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib and Massachusetts Rep. Ayanna Pressley will have difficulties. Ocasio-Cortez does have a challenger, but his largely self-funded effort pales in comparison to Ocasio-Cortez's campaign war chest, while Tlaib's little-known opponents only just filed for the race and haven't reported raising any money. Pressley, meanwhile, has no primary opposition ahead of Massachusetts's May 7 candidate filing deadline.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538