Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.

Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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In Alabama, Republican Caroleene Dobson advances from the run-off in the 2nd District

Slight break from Pennsylvania ... As I just mentioned earlier, the GOP is trailing Democrats when it comes to nominating women to competitive races. But last Tuesday, attorney Caroleene Dobson beat Dick Brewbaker, a businessman and former state senator in the runoff in Alabama's 2nd District, so she will be on the ballot in November. Dobson had backing from VIEWPAC, which was founded in 1997 to help elect qualified, viable Republican women to Congress. The Democrats also had a runoff, which was won by a Biden administration alum, Shomari Figures.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Lee leads after initial batch of returns from Allegheny County

In the 12th District Democratic primary, incumbent Lee leads challenger Patel 55 percent to 45 percent after Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) reported a big chunk of early votes just after polls closed. On the one hand, this shows Patel isn't that far behind Lee and could be in the race. On the other hand, Lee actually lost the mail/early vote in the 2022 primary here when she first won this seat, 51 percent to 31 percent, but this time around she leads it. And since about 90 percent of the primary vote will come from Allegheny (the rest from Westmoreland next door), Lee has to be seen as a favorite at this point.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


And we’ve got some preliminary results from Bucks County!

In the 1st District, GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is well ahead of his challenger from the right, anti-abortion activist Mark Houck. With 20 percent of the expected vote reporting, Fitzpatrick has 83 percent to Houck’s 17 percent. In fact, the Associated Press has already called this race and projected Fitzpatrick to win. ABC News, however, has yet to make a projection, so hang tight!

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538


Pennsylvania voters are focused on the economy

In Pennsylvania, as in many states around the country, voters name the economy as the most important issue facing the state. In a mid-March Emerson College/The Hill survey, 36 percent of respondents said "the economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" was the most important issue facing Pennsylvania. The next most chosen issue was crime (12 percent), followed by immigration and "threats to democracy" (11 percent each) and healthcare (9 percent).

Republicans were particularly concerned about the economy and immigration, with 47 and 21 percent selecting those two issues, respectively, and no other issue chosen by more than 9 percent of Republican voters. Democrats also selected the economy first, but with less gusto: 27 percent said the economy is the most important issue, followed by threats to democracy (16 percent), healthcare (15 percent) and crime (13 percent).

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Pennsylvania features the first real primary challenge against The Squad

The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has paved the way for some bitter Democratic primary fights in 2024. Among those most critical of Israel's actions in the conflict has been The Squad, an informal group of around nine progressive Democrats who often clash with their party's establishment. Of that cohort, Rep. Summer Lee of Pittsburgh is the first to face a contested primary in 2024 — but she won't be the last. At least four members, including Lee, have potentially significant primary opposition in part because of their vocal denouncements of Israel — although increasingly negative views of the Middle East nation's actions among the Democratic base means the conflict may not be as helpful to The Squad's challengers as some may have expected.

Should Lee survive, she would join Reps. Greg Casar of Texas and Delia Ramirez of Illinois among those who've won renomination (Casar and Ramirez faced no opposition in their March primaries). But some members with primaries later this summer may have problems, especially the two who are arguably most endangered: New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman and Missouri Rep. Cori Bush. For one thing, they've each been outraised by their leading challengers, and they both have potential scandals that could derail their reelection efforts. Last fall, Bowman pulled a fire alarm in a Capitol office building right before a vote, which resulted in him paying a fine and receiving a censure from the House. And Bush faces investigations by the Department of Justice, Federal Election Commission and House Ethics Committee into alleged misuse of funds to pay her security team, including payments to her husband as part of that team.

Beyond those two, Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar may be the other Squad member who could have some trouble. Two years ago, she defeated former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels by just 2 percentage points in the Democratic primary; now Samuels is back for a rematch, although Omar has already raised more than twice as much as the $2.4 million she'd brought in by the time of the 2022 primary>. Otherwise, there are few signs that New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib and Massachusetts Rep. Ayanna Pressley will have difficulties. Ocasio-Cortez does have a challenger, but his largely self-funded effort pales in comparison to Ocasio-Cortez's campaign war chest, while Tlaib's little-known opponents only just filed for the race and haven't reported raising any money. Pressley, meanwhile, has no primary opposition ahead of Massachusetts's May 7 candidate filing deadline.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538